Related papers: Analyzing the Design Space of Re-opening Policies and COVID-19 Outcomes in the US

Analyzing the Design Space of Re-opening Policies and COVID-19 Outcomes in the US

URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2005.00112v3
Date: Wed, 29 Jul 2020 02:17:47 GMT
Title: Analyzing the Design Space of Re-opening Policies and COVID-19 Outcomes in the US
Authors: Chaoqi Yang, Ruijie Wang, Fangwei Gao, Dachun Sun, Jiawei Tang, Tarek Abdelzaher
Abstract summary: Recent re-opening policies in the US, following a period of social distancing measures, introduced a significant increase in daily COVID-19 infections. We introduce a model, inspired by social networks research, that answers the question. Our models predict that the benefits of (mandatory) testing out-shadow the benefits of partial venue closure, suggesting that perhaps more efforts should be directed to such a mitigation strategy.
Score: 5.74610768062625
License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
Abstract: Recent re-opening policies in the US, following a period of social distancing measures, introduced a significant increase in daily COVID-19 infections, calling for a roll-back or substantial revisiting of these policies in many states. The situation is suggestive of difficulties modeling the impact of partial distancing/re-opening policies on future epidemic spread for purposes of choosing safe alternatives. More specifically, one needs to understand the impact of manipulating the availability of social interaction venues (e.g., schools, workplaces, and retail establishments) on virus spread. We introduce a model, inspired by social networks research, that answers the above question. Our model compartmentalizes interaction venues into categories we call mixing domains, enabling one to predict COVID-19 contagion trends in different geographic regions under different what if assumptions on partial re-opening of individual domains. We apply our model to several highly impacted states showing (i) how accurately it predicts the extent of current resurgence (from available policy descriptions), and (ii) what alternatives might be more effective at mitigating the second wave. We further compare policies that rely on partial venue closure to policies that espouse wide-spread periodic testing instead (i.e., in lieu of social distancing). Our models predict that the benefits of (mandatory) testing out-shadow the benefits of partial venue closure, suggesting that perhaps more efforts should be directed to such a mitigation strategy.

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