Continuous Forecasting via Neural Eigen Decomposition of Stochastic Dynamics

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2202.00117v2
• Date: Wed, 2 Feb 2022 13:16:48 GMT
• Title: Continuous Forecasting via Neural Eigen Decomposition of Stochastic Dynamics
• Authors: Stav Belogolovsky, Ido Greenberg, Danny Eitan and Shie Mannor
• Abstract summary: We introduce the Neural Eigen-SDE (NESDE) algorithm for sequential prediction with sparse observations and adaptive dynamics. NESDE applies eigen-decomposition to the dynamics model to allow efficient frequent predictions given sparse observations. We are the first to provide a patient-adapted prediction for blood coagulation following Heparin dosing in the MIMIC-IV dataset.
• Score: 47.82509795873254
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: Motivated by a real-world problem of blood coagulation control in Heparin-treated patients, we use Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) to formulate a new class of sequential prediction problems -- with an unknown latent space, unknown non-linear dynamics, and irregular sparse observations. We introduce the Neural Eigen-SDE (NESDE) algorithm for sequential prediction with sparse observations and adaptive dynamics. NESDE applies eigen-decomposition to the dynamics model to allow efficient frequent predictions given sparse observations. In addition, NESDE uses a learning mechanism for adaptive dynamics model, which handles changes in the dynamics both between sequences and within sequences. We demonstrate the accuracy and efficacy of NESDE for both synthetic problems and real-world data. In particular, to the best of our knowledge, we are the first to provide a patient-adapted prediction for blood coagulation following Heparin dosing in the MIMIC-IV dataset. Finally, we publish a simulated gym environment based on our prediction model, for experimentation in algorithms for blood coagulation control.

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