LLM-Enhanced Black-Litterman Portfolio Optimization
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2504.14345v2
- Date: Sun, 19 Oct 2025 12:21:52 GMT
- Title: LLM-Enhanced Black-Litterman Portfolio Optimization
- Authors: Youngbin Lee, Yejin Kim, Juhyeong Kim, Suin Kim, Yongjae Lee,
- Abstract summary: This study proposes and validates a systematic frame- work that translates return forecasts and predictive uncertainty from Large Language Models into the core inputs for the Black-Litterman model.<n>Through a backtest on S&P 500 constituents, we demonstrate that portfolios driven by top-performing LLMs significantly out- perform traditional baselines in both absolute and risk-adjusted terms.
- Score: 30.37210534945387
- License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
- Abstract: The Black-Litterman model addresses the sensitivity issues of tra- ditional mean-variance optimization by incorporating investor views, but systematically generating these views remains a key challenge. This study proposes and validates a systematic frame- work that translates return forecasts and predictive uncertainty from Large Language Models (LLMs) into the core inputs for the Black-Litterman model: investor views and their confidence lev- els. Through a backtest on S&P 500 constituents, we demonstrate that portfolios driven by top-performing LLMs significantly out- perform traditional baselines in both absolute and risk-adjusted terms. Crucially, our analysis reveals that each LLM exhibits a dis- tinct and consistent investment style which is the primary driver of performance. We found that the selection of an LLM is therefore not a search for a single best forecaster, but a strategic choice of an investment style whose success is contingent on its alignment with the prevailing market regime. The source code and data are available at https://github.com/youngandbin/LLM-BLM.
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