Consistent and Compatible Modelling of Cyber Intrusions and Incident Response Demonstrated in the Context of Malware Attacks on Critical Infrastructure

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2505.16398v1
• Date: Thu, 22 May 2025 08:49:35 GMT
• Title: Consistent and Compatible Modelling of Cyber Intrusions and Incident Response Demonstrated in the Context of Malware Attacks on Critical Infrastructure
• Authors: Peter Maynard, Yulia Cherdantseva, Avi Shaked, Pete Burnap, Arif Mehmood,
• Abstract summary: Cyber Security Incident Response (IR) Playbooks are used to capture the steps required to recover from a cyber intrusion.<n>We take nine critical national infrastructure intrusion models and transform them into models of the same format as IR playbooks.<n>This results in improved intrusion models and tighter coupling between IR playbooks and threat modelling.
• Score: 3.4682832343026826
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: Cyber Security Incident Response (IR) Playbooks are used to capture the steps required to recover from a cyber intrusion. Individual IR playbooks should focus on a specific type of incident and be aligned with the architecture of a system under attack. Intrusion modelling focuses on a specific potential cyber intrusion and is used to identify where and what countermeasures are needed, and the resulting intrusion models are expected to be used in effective IR, ideally by feeding IR Playbooks designs. IR playbooks and intrusion models, however, are created in isolation and at varying stages of the system's lifecycle. We take nine critical national infrastructure intrusion models - expressed using Sequential AND Attack Trees - and transform them into models of the same format as IR playbooks. We use Security Modelling Framework for modelling attacks and playbooks, and for demonstrating the feasibility of the better integration between risk assessment and IR at the modelling level. This results in improved intrusion models and tighter coupling between IR playbooks and threat modelling which - as we demonstrate - yields novel insights into the analysis of attacks and response actions. The main contributions of this paper are (a) a novel way of representing attack trees using the Security Modelling Framework,(b) a new tool for converting Sequential AND attack trees into models compatible with playbooks, and (c) the examples of nine intrusion models represented using the Security Modelling Framework.

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