Identifying Memory Effects in Epidemics via a Fractional SEIRD Model and Physics-Informed Neural Networks

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2509.22760v1
• Date: Fri, 26 Sep 2025 13:41:11 GMT
• Title: Identifying Memory Effects in Epidemics via a Fractional SEIRD Model and Physics-Informed Neural Networks
• Authors: Achraf Zinihi,
• Abstract summary: We develop a physics-informed neural network framework for parameter estimation in fractional-order SEIRD epidemic models.<n>Our framework learns the fractional memory order $alpha$ as a trainable parameter while simultaneously estimating the epidemiological rates $(beta, sigma, gamma, mu)$.<n>Tests on synthetic Mpox data confirm reliable recovery of $alpha$ and parameters under noise, while applications to COVID-19 show that optimal $alpha in (0, 1]$ captures memory effects and improves predictive performance over the classical SEIRD model.
• Score: 0.0
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: We develop a physics-informed neural network (PINN) framework for parameter estimation in fractional-order SEIRD epidemic models. By embedding the Caputo fractional derivative into the network residuals via the L1 discretization scheme, our method simultaneously reconstructs epidemic trajectories and infers both epidemiological parameters and the fractional memory order $\alpha$. The fractional formulation extends classical integer-order models by capturing long-range memory effects in disease progression, incubation, and recovery. Our framework learns the fractional memory order $\alpha$ as a trainable parameter while simultaneously estimating the epidemiological rates $(\beta, \sigma, \gamma, \mu)$. A composite loss combining data misfit, physics residuals, and initial conditions, with constraints on positivity and population conservation, ensures both accuracy and biological consistency. Tests on synthetic Mpox data confirm reliable recovery of $\alpha$ and parameters under noise, while applications to COVID-19 show that optimal $\alpha \in (0, 1]$ captures memory effects and improves predictive performance over the classical SEIRD model. This work establishes PINNs as a robust tool for learning memory effects in epidemic dynamics, with implications for forecasting, control strategies, and the analysis of non-Markovian epidemic processes.

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