Signal-Aware Workload Shifting Algorithms with Uncertainty-Quantified Predictors

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2509.26511v1
• Date: Tue, 30 Sep 2025 16:51:35 GMT
• Title: Signal-Aware Workload Shifting Algorithms with Uncertainty-Quantified Predictors
• Abstract summary: workload shifting affects sustainability and grid-integration strategies.<n>Online workload shifting can leverage uncertainty quantification predictors to improve decision-making.<n>We introduce $textttUQ-Advice$, a learning-augmented algorithm that integrates UQ forecasts through a $textitdecision uncertainty score.
• Score: 10.20532871525325
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: A wide range of sustainability and grid-integration strategies depend on workload shifting, which aligns the timing of energy consumption with external signals such as grid curtailment events, carbon intensity, or time-of-use electricity prices. The main challenge lies in the online nature of the problem: operators must make real-time decisions (e.g., whether to consume energy now) without knowledge of the future. While forecasts of signal values are typically available, prior work on learning-augmented online algorithms has relied almost exclusively on simple point forecasts. In parallel, the forecasting research has made significant progress in uncertainty quantification (UQ), which provides richer and more fine-grained predictive information. In this paper, we study how online workload shifting can leverage UQ predictors to improve decision-making. We introduce $\texttt{UQ-Advice}$, a learning-augmented algorithm that systematically integrates UQ forecasts through a $\textit{decision uncertainty score}$ that measures how forecast uncertainty affects optimal future decisions. By introducing $\textit{UQ-robustness}$, a new metric that characterizes how performance degrades with forecast uncertainty, we establish theoretical performance guarantees for $\texttt{UQ-Advice}$. Finally, using trace-driven experiments on carbon intensity and electricity price data, we demonstrate that $\texttt{UQ-Advice}$ consistently outperforms robust baselines and existing learning-augmented methods that ignore uncertainty.

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