Learning to Manage Investment Portfolios beyond Simple Utility Functions
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2510.26165v1
- Date: Thu, 30 Oct 2025 06:01:20 GMT
- Title: Learning to Manage Investment Portfolios beyond Simple Utility Functions
- Authors: Maarten P. Scholl, Mahmoud Mahfouz, Anisoara Calinescu, J. Doyne Farmer,
- Abstract summary: We propose a generative framework that learns latent representations of fund manager strategies without requiring explicit utility specification.<n>We validate our framework on a dataset of 1436 U.S. equity mutual funds.<n>Our framework provides a data-driven approach for characterizing investment strategies for applications in market simulation, strategy attribution, and regulatory oversight.
- Score: 0.9999629695552193
- License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
- Abstract: While investment funds publicly disclose their objectives in broad terms, their managers optimize for complex combinations of competing goals that go beyond simple risk-return trade-offs. Traditional approaches attempt to model this through multi-objective utility functions, but face fundamental challenges in specification and parameterization. We propose a generative framework that learns latent representations of fund manager strategies without requiring explicit utility specification. Our approach directly models the conditional probability of a fund's portfolio weights, given stock characteristics, historical returns, previous weights, and a latent variable representing the fund's strategy. Unlike methods based on reinforcement learning or imitation learning, which require specified rewards or labeled expert objectives, our GAN-based architecture learns directly from the joint distribution of observed holdings and market data. We validate our framework on a dataset of 1436 U.S. equity mutual funds. The learned representations successfully capture known investment styles, such as "growth" and "value," while also revealing implicit manager objectives. For instance, we find that while many funds exhibit characteristics of Markowitz-like optimization, they do so with heterogeneous realizations for turnover, concentration, and latent factors. To analyze and interpret the end-to-end model, we develop a series of tests that explain the model, and we show that the benchmark's expert labeling are contained in our model's encoding in a linear interpretable way. Our framework provides a data-driven approach for characterizing investment strategies for applications in market simulation, strategy attribution, and regulatory oversight.
Related papers
- Trade in Minutes! Rationality-Driven Agentic System for Quantitative Financial Trading [57.28635022507172]
TiMi is a rationality-driven multi-agent system that architecturally decouples strategy development from minute-level deployment.<n>We propose a two-tier analytical paradigm from macro patterns to micro customization, layered programming design for trading bot implementation, and closed-loop optimization driven by mathematical reflection.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-10-06T13:08:55Z) - Plan before Solving: Problem-Aware Strategy Routing for Mathematical Reasoning with LLMs [49.995906301946]
Existing methods usually leverage a fixed strategy to guide Large Language Models (LLMs) to perform mathematical reasoning.<n>Our analysis reveals that the single strategy cannot adapt to problem-specific requirements and thus overlooks the trade-off between effectiveness and efficiency.<n>We propose Planning and Routing through Instance-Specific Modeling (PRISM), a novel framework that decouples mathematical reasoning into two stages: strategy planning and targeted execution.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-09-29T07:22:41Z) - From Headlines to Holdings: Deep Learning for Smarter Portfolio Decisions [4.288926547930663]
We present an end-to-end framework that learns portfolio weights using deep learning.<n>We evaluate the framework on nine U.S. stocks spanning six sectors, chosen to balance sector diversity and news coverage.<n>Although the stock universe is limited, the results underscore the value of integrating price, relational, and sentiment signals for portfolio management.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-09-29T00:42:24Z) - Your AI, Not Your View: The Bias of LLMs in Investment Analysis [62.388554963415906]
In finance, Large Language Models (LLMs) face frequent knowledge conflicts arising from discrepancies between their pre-trained parametric knowledge and real-time market data.<n>These conflicts are especially problematic in real-world investment services, where a model's inherent biases can misalign with institutional objectives.<n>We propose an experimental framework to investigate emergent behaviors in such conflict scenarios, offering a quantitative analysis of bias in investment analysis.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-07-28T16:09:38Z) - Your Offline Policy is Not Trustworthy: Bilevel Reinforcement Learning for Sequential Portfolio Optimization [82.03139922490796]
Reinforcement learning (RL) has shown significant promise for sequential portfolio optimization tasks, such as stock trading, where the objective is to maximize cumulative returns while minimizing risks using historical data.<n>Traditional RL approaches often produce policies that merely memorize the optimal yet impractical buying and selling behaviors within the fixed dataset.<n>Our approach frames portfolio optimization as a new type of partial-offline RL problem and makes two technical contributions.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-05-19T06:37:25Z) - Deep Reinforcement Learning for Investor-Specific Portfolio Optimization: A Volatility-Guided Asset Selection Approach [2.2835610890984164]
This study proposes a volatility-guided portfolio optimization framework that dynamically constructs portfolios based on investors' risk profiles.<n>The efficacy of the proposed methodology is established using stocks from the Dow $30$ index.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-04-20T10:17:37Z) - Agentic Knowledgeable Self-awareness [79.25908923383776]
KnowSelf is a data-centric approach that applies agents with knowledgeable self-awareness like humans.<n>Our experiments demonstrate that KnowSelf can outperform various strong baselines on different tasks and models with minimal use of external knowledge.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-04-04T16:03:38Z) - Conformal Predictive Portfolio Selection [10.470114319701576]
We propose a framework for predictive portfolio selection via conformal prediction.<n>Our approach forecasts future portfolio returns, computes the corresponding prediction intervals, and selects the portfolio of interest based on these intervals.<n>We demonstrate the effectiveness of the CPPS framework by applying it to an AR model and validate its performance through empirical studies.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-10-19T15:42:49Z) - Hedge Fund Portfolio Construction Using PolyModel Theory and iTransformer [1.4061979259370274]
We implement the PolyModel theory for constructing a hedge fund portfolio.<n>We create quantitative measures such as Long-term Alpha, Long-term Ratio, and SVaR.<n>We also employ the latest deep learning techniques (iTransformer) to capture the upward trend.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-08-06T17:55:58Z) - Multimodal Gen-AI for Fundamental Investment Research [2.559302299676632]
This report outlines a transformative initiative in the financial investment industry, where the conventional decision-making process is being reimagined.
We seek to evaluate the effectiveness of fine-tuning methods on a base model (Llama2) to achieve specific application-level goals.
The project encompasses a diverse corpus dataset, including research reports, investment memos, market news, and extensive time-series market data.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-12-24T03:35:13Z) - Factor Investing with a Deep Multi-Factor Model [123.52358449455231]
We develop a novel deep multi-factor model that adopts industry neutralization and market neutralization modules with clear financial insights.
Tests on real-world stock market data demonstrate the effectiveness of our deep multi-factor model.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2022-10-22T14:47:11Z) - Asset Allocation: From Markowitz to Deep Reinforcement Learning [2.0305676256390934]
Asset allocation is an investment strategy that aims to balance risk and reward by constantly redistributing the portfolio's assets.
We conduct an extensive benchmark study to determine the efficacy and reliability of a number of optimization techniques.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2022-07-14T14:44:04Z)
This list is automatically generated from the titles and abstracts of the papers in this site.
This site does not guarantee the quality of this site (including all information) and is not responsible for any consequences.