Novelty and Impact of Economics Papers

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2511.01211v2
• Date: Tue, 04 Nov 2025 20:08:10 GMT
• Title: Novelty and Impact of Economics Papers
• Authors: Chaofeng Wu,
• Abstract summary: Two dimensions: textitspatial novelty and textittemporal novelty<n>We develop metrics that quantify a paper's location relative to the full-text literature.<n>These two dimensions predict systematically different outcomes.
• Score: 0.25817216954554184
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: We propose a framework that recasts scientific novelty not as a single attribute of a paper, but as a reflection of its position within the evolving intellectual landscape. We decompose this position into two orthogonal dimensions: \textit{spatial novelty}, which measures a paper's intellectual distinctiveness from its neighbors, and \textit{temporal novelty}, which captures its engagement with a dynamic research frontier. To operationalize these concepts, we leverage Large Language Models to develop semantic isolation metrics that quantify a paper's location relative to the full-text literature. Applying this framework to a large corpus of economics articles, we uncover a fundamental trade-off: these two dimensions predict systematically different outcomes. Temporal novelty primarily predicts citation counts, whereas spatial novelty predicts disruptive impact. This distinction allows us to construct a typology of semantic neighborhoods, identifying four archetypes associated with distinct and predictable impact profiles. Our findings demonstrate that novelty can be understood as a multidimensional construct whose different forms, reflecting a paper's strategic location, have measurable and fundamentally distinct consequences for scientific progress.

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