Hybrid Quantum-Classical Ensemble Learning for S\&P 500 Directional Prediction

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2512.15738v1
• Date: Sat, 06 Dec 2025 22:22:09 GMT
• Title: Hybrid Quantum-Classical Ensemble Learning for S\&P 500 Directional Prediction
• Abstract summary: We introduce a hybrid ensemble framework combining quantum sentiment analysis, Decision Transformer architecture, and strategic model selection.<n>We achieve 60.14% directional accuracy on S&P 500 prediction, a 3.10% improvement over individual models.
• Score: 0.2538209532048867
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: Financial market prediction is a challenging application of machine learning, where even small improvements in directional accuracy can yield substantial value. Most models struggle to exceed 55--57\% accuracy due to high noise, non-stationarity, and market efficiency. We introduce a hybrid ensemble framework combining quantum sentiment analysis, Decision Transformer architecture, and strategic model selection, achieving 60.14\% directional accuracy on S\&P 500 prediction, a 3.10\% improvement over individual models. Our framework addresses three limitations of prior approaches. First, architecture diversity dominates dataset diversity: combining different learning algorithms (LSTM, Decision Transformer, XGBoost, Random Forest, Logistic Regression) on the same data outperforms training identical architectures on multiple datasets (60.14\% vs.\ 52.80\%), confirmed by correlation analysis ($r>0.6$ among same-architecture models). Second, a 4-qubit variational quantum circuit enhances sentiment analysis, providing +0.8\% to +1.5\% gains per model. Third, smart filtering excludes weak predictors (accuracy $<52\%$), improving ensemble performance (Top-7 models: 60.14\% vs.\ all 35 models: 51.2\%). We evaluate on 2020--2023 market data across seven instruments, covering diverse regimes including the COVID-19 crash and inflation-driven correction. McNemar's test confirms statistical significance ($p<0.05$). Preliminary backtesting with confidence-based filtering (6+ model consensus) yields a Sharpe ratio of 1.2 versus buy-and-hold's 0.8, demonstrating practical trading potential.

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