The Plausibility Trap: Using Probabilistic Engines for Deterministic Tasks

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2601.15130v1
• Date: Wed, 21 Jan 2026 16:05:01 GMT
• Title: The Plausibility Trap: Using Probabilistic Engines for Deterministic Tasks
• Authors: Ivan Carrera, Daniel Maldonado-Ruiz,
• Abstract summary: This article defines the "Plausibility Trap"<n>Individuals with access to Artificial Intelligence deploy expensive probabilistic engines for simple deterministic tasks.<n>We introduce Tool Selection Engineering and the Deterministic-Probabilistic Decision Matrix to help developers determine when to use Generative AI.
• Score: 0.0
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
• Abstract: The ubiquity of Large Language Models (LLMs) is driving a paradigm shift where user convenience supersedes computational efficiency. This article defines the "Plausibility Trap": a phenomenon where individuals with access to Artificial Intelligence (AI) models deploy expensive probabilistic engines for simple deterministic tasks-such as Optical Character Recognition (OCR) or basic verification-resulting in significant resource waste. Through micro-benchmarks and case studies on OCR and fact-checking, we quantify the "efficiency tax"-demonstrating a ~6.5x latency penalty-and the risks of algorithmic sycophancy. To counter this, we introduce Tool Selection Engineering and the Deterministic-Probabilistic Decision Matrix, a framework to help developers determine when to use Generative AI and, crucially, when to avoid it. We argue for a curriculum shift, emphasizing that true digital literacy relies not only in knowing how to use Generative AI, but also on knowing when not to use it.

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