Forecasting as Rendering: A 2D Gaussian Splatting Framework for Time Series Forecasting

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2603.02220v1
• Date: Tue, 10 Feb 2026 14:13:36 GMT
• Title: Forecasting as Rendering: A 2D Gaussian Splatting Framework for Time Series Forecasting
• Abstract summary: Time series forecasting (TSF) remains a challenging problem due to the intricate entanglement of intraperiod-fluctuations and interperiod-trends.<n>Treating reshaped tensors as static images results in a topological mismatch.<n> relying on uniform fixed-size representations allocates modeling capacity inefficiently.<n>TimeGS is a novel framework that fundamentally shifts the forecasting paradigm from regression to 2D generative rendering.
• Score: 79.37674445572462
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: Time series forecasting (TSF) remains a challenging problem due to the intricate entanglement of intraperiod-fluctuations and interperiod-trends. While recent advances have attempted to reshape 1D sequences into 2D period-phase representations, they suffer from two principal limitations.Firstly, treating reshaped tensors as static images results in a topological mismatch, as standard spatial operators sever chronological continuity at grid boundaries. Secondly, relying on uniform fixed-size representations allocates modeling capacity inefficiently and fails to provide the adaptive resolution required for compressible, non-stationary temporal patterns. To address these limitations, we introduce TimeGS, a novel framework that fundamentally shifts the forecasting paradigm from regression to 2D generative rendering. By reconceptualizing the future sequence as a continuous latent surface, TimeGS utilizes the inherent anisotropy of Gaussian kernels to adaptively model complex variations with flexible geometric alignment. To realize this, we introduce a Multi-Basis Gaussian Kernel Generation (MB-GKG) block that synthesizes kernels from a fixed dictionary to stabilize optimization, and a Multi-Period Chronologically Continuous Rasterization (MP-CCR) block that enforces strict temporal continuity across periodic boundaries. Comprehensive experiments on standard benchmark datasets demonstrate that TimeGS attains state-of-the-art performance.

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