Prognostic Value of Lung Ultrasound Biomarkers for Readmission Risk in Congestive Heart Failure: A Pilot Data-Driven Analysis

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.18878v1
• Date: Sat, 16 May 2026 02:49:12 GMT
• Title: Prognostic Value of Lung Ultrasound Biomarkers for Readmission Risk in Congestive Heart Failure: A Pilot Data-Driven Analysis
• Abstract summary: Hospital readmission within 30 days of discharge is a leading driver of morbidity, mortality and avoidable healthcare expenditure in congestive heart failure (CHF)<n>Point-of-care lung (LUS) offers a sensitive, noninvasive window into the pulmonary congestion that characterizes CHF decompensation, yet its prognostic utility for readmission prediction remains largely unexplored.<n>We present pilot feasibility study using B-mode LUS acquired during hospitalization to predict 30-day CHF readmission.
• Score: 26.032201678917374
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
• Abstract: Hospital readmission within 30 days of discharge is a leading driver of morbidity, mortality, and avoidable healthcare expenditure in congestive heart failure (CHF). Current clinical risk stratification tools rely primarily on non-imaging data and exhibit limited predictive performance. Point-of-care lung ultrasound (LUS) offers a sensitive, noninvasive window into the pulmonary congestion that characterizes CHF decompensation, yet its prognostic utility for readmission prediction remains largely unexplored. We present a pilot feasibility study, the first systematic machine learning study using B-mode LUS acquired during hospitalization to predict 30-day CHF readmission. Quantitative spatiotemporal embeddings are extracted from a pretrained Temporal Shift Module (TSM) ResNet-18 encoder, and interpretable biomarker features are separately evaluated. Through structured ablations over lung view, temporal representation, multi-view fusion, and cross-lung augmentation, we identify the key imaging factors driving readmission risk. Our findings reveal that (1) dependent lower-lung regions (Left-3, Right-3) carry the strongest prognostic signal, consistent with their greater susceptibility to hydrostatic congestion; (2) temporal difference features between sequential examinations substantially outperform single-timepoint representations, highlighting the importance of capturing disease trajectory; and (3) multi-view feature concatenation yields the best overall performance, with our top MLP model achieving an F1 score of 0.80 (95% CI: 0.62-0.96). Biomarker analysis further reveals that pleural-line abnormalities, including breaks and indentations, are as informative as the canonical A-line and B-line markers. These results support POCUS-derived biomarkers as practical, interpretable tools for noninvasive CHF risk stratification.

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