AI-Driven Alpha Decay: Algorithmic Homogenization, Reflexive Signal Erosion, and the Paradox of Intelligent Markets

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.23905v1
• Date: Mon, 23 Mar 2026 06:49:42 GMT
• Title: AI-Driven Alpha Decay: Algorithmic Homogenization, Reflexive Signal Erosion, and the Paradox of Intelligent Markets
• Abstract summary: We show that AI-driven investment strategies are inherently self-defeating at scale.<n>As AI adoption rises, three mutually reinforcing channels -- signal crowding, performative signal erosion, and Red Queen competition -- compress excess returns.
• Score: 0.7016842616745783
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: We show that AI-driven investment strategies are inherently self-defeating at scale. As AI adoption rises, three mutually reinforcing channels -- signal crowding, performative signal erosion, and Red Queen competition -- compress excess returns. We derive the alpha half-life $h(φ) = \ln 2/[θ+ δ(φ)]$, where $θ$ is the natural mean-reversion rate and $δ(φ) = Nφρa/λ(φ)$ is the AI-accelerated decay component, which is convex-decreasing in adoption. At current adoption levels ($φ\approx 0.7$, $ρ\approx 0.6$), the model implies signal half-lives of 18 months versus 5-7 years pre-AI. We establish four theoretical results. First, the alpha half-life theorem: signal lifespans are convex-decreasing in AI adoption. Second, a signal extinction cascade: beyond a critical threshold $φ^*$, the decay of one signal class triggers accelerated competition for remaining signals. Third, a Red Queen impossibility: in the monoculture equilibrium, net alpha is identically zero despite heavy AI investment. Fourth, a fragility-efficiency tradeoff: the adoption level maximizing price discovery strictly exceeds the level minimizing systemic fragility. Empirical validation calibrates portfolio convergence to SEC Form 13F filing patterns (99.5 million holdings, 2013-2024), documenting that simulated institutional portfolio convergence increases by 42% over the sample period. We examine simulated hedge fund return dynamics showing declining cross-sectional dispersion among AI-adopting funds, and simulate the 2010 Flash Crash to illustrate fragility consequences.

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