Step-adaptive multimodal fusion network with multi-scale cloud feature learning for ultra-short-term solar irradiance forecasting

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.06102v1
• Date: Thu, 04 Jun 2026 12:42:52 GMT
• Title: Step-adaptive multimodal fusion network with multi-scale cloud feature learning for ultra-short-term solar irradiance forecasting
• Abstract summary: This paper proposes a multi-source data fusion model for ultra-short-term irradiance prediction.<n>The model first employs InceptionNeXt to extract multi-scale, multi-directional spatial features from ground-based cloud images.<n>A step-adaptive low-frequency compensation unit is then introduced to dynamically modulate global low-frequency information based on the prediction step.
• Score: 0.0
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: Ultra-short-term solar irradiance prediction is critical for photovoltaic system dispatch and power grid stability. Existing approaches suffer from three key shortcomings: single time-series models cannot capture the spatial dynamics of clouds under complex conditions, standard convolutions inadequately represent multi-scale cloud features, and fixed low-frequency compensation strategies fail to adapt to different prediction steps. To address these issues, this proposes a multi-source data fusion model for ultra-short-term irradiance prediction. The model first employs InceptionNeXt to extract multi-scale, multi-directional spatial features from ground-based cloud images. A step-adaptive low-frequency compensation unit is then introduced to dynamically modulate global low-frequency information based on the prediction step. Eventually, the enhanced image features are combined with meteorological time-series features, and a TempAttnLSTM network captures global temporal dependencies for multi-step prediction. Experiments on the public NREL dataset and practical photovoltaic stations in Shandong illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method compared with several state-of-the-art approaches.

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