Quantum Horizon: An evaluation of quantum computing as a threat to Bitcoin and Ethereum

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.14484v1
• Date: Fri, 12 Jun 2026 14:21:58 GMT
• Title: Quantum Horizon: An evaluation of quantum computing as a threat to Bitcoin and Ethereum
• Abstract summary: Quantum computing poses a real, broad-based, but bounded and substantially mitigable threat to Bitcoin and quadratic.<n>We separate the two quantum algorithms that public discussion routinely conflates.<n>A timely migration beats even an optimistic 2035 machine, so the binding constraint is governance, not technology.
• Score: 0.0
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: Quantum computing poses a real, broad-based, but bounded and substantially mitigable threat to Bitcoin and Ethereum. We separate the two quantum algorithms that public discussion routinely conflates: Shor's algorithm breaks the elliptic-curve signatures (ECDSA over secp256k1, BLS over BLS12-381) that authorize spending, whereas Grover's algorithm does not meaningfully threaten proof-of-work mining, which is protected by a merely quadratic speedup, fault-tolerant per-operation costs, a square-root parallelization wall, and difficulty adjustment. Folding hardware scaling, the falling resource requirement, a fault-tolerance readiness lag, and expert surveys into a single Monte-Carlo forecast yields a wide, bimodal arrival distribution for a cryptographically relevant quantum computer: about a one-in-six chance by 2035, near 30% by 2040, and about 60% by 2050. Exposure is concentrated and mostly migratable: of Bitcoin's roughly six million quantum-exposed coins only about 2.3 million are irreducibly at risk, while 50 to 65% of Ether sits at key-revealed accounts that can adopt post-quantum signatures. A timely migration beats even an optimistic 2035 machine, so the binding constraint is governance, not technology. A survey of the top twenty cryptocurrencies finds none fully post-quantum. Reproducible models accompany every quantitative claim.

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