Counterfactual learning of new adaptive instructional policies using logged data

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.23015v1
• Date: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 08:28:34 GMT
• Title: Counterfactual learning of new adaptive instructional policies using logged data
• Abstract summary: This paper introduces an offline contextual bandit framework that learns new adaptive policies directly from logged interaction data.<n>We show that effective instructional policies can be learned and visualized within seconds of computation.
• Score: 1.0534609884264237
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: Optimizing instructional policies in Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITS) typically requires costly online experimentation or student simulators that may fail to capture real-world dynamics. This paper introduces an offline contextual bandit framework that learns new adaptive policies directly from logged interaction data. By mapping student-item interactions onto a continuous latent proficiency-difficulty scale using a Rasch model, we cast the tutoring process as a continuous stochastic bandit problem. We propose a novel reward function designed to optimize ''flow'' by balancing task challenge with student success. Our approach includes a round-specific behavior policy estimation that serves as both a propensity model for off-policy evaluation and a diagnostic tool for ITS adaptivity. We demonstrate the efficacy of this framework across four large-scale real-world datasets, achieving consistent policy improvements over the logged behavior policy. The results show that effective instructional policies can be learned and visualized within seconds of computation, providing a scalable path for improving adaptive learning systems without further data collection.

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