Minimax Quantile Lower Bounds for Interactive Statistical Decision Making with Privacy
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.23096v1
- Date: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 09:41:48 GMT
- Title: Minimax Quantile Lower Bounds for Interactive Statistical Decision Making with Privacy
- Abstract summary: Minimax risk and regret are expectation-based criteria and do not capture rare but consequential failures.<n>We develop a $$-explicit minimax-quantile theory for interactive statistical decision making.
- Score: 38.10483249859454
- License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
- Abstract: Minimax risk and regret are expectation-based criteria and do not capture rare but consequential failures. To address this concern, we develop a $δ$-explicit minimax-quantile theory for interactive statistical decision making (ISDM). We first provide structural relations between minimax quantiles, lower minimax quantiles, and minimax risk. This includes a quantile-to-expectation conversion and an equivalence between strict and lower minimax quantiles outside a countable set of confidence levels. We then derive two converse tools for ISDM: a high-probability interactive Fano's method and a high-probability interactive Le Cam's method. Then, we show that mutual-information (MI) privacy can be handled in the same framework by restricting the admissible decision class. For coordinatewise Gaussian privatization, we derive a two-point template that isolates the privacy-induced variance inflation. We instantiate this template for Gaussian mean estimation, and use the same two-point strategy directly for two-armed Gaussian bandits. We then derive a minimax quantile lower bound for the $K$-armed Gaussian bandit problem, showing that the interactive Fano method captures the exploration cost over multiple possible best arms. The resulting lower bounds are explicit in the confidence level $δ$ and in the privacy budget for the private problems. They yield $\log(1/δ)/n$ scaling for squared-error Gaussian mean estimation, $\sqrt{T\log(1/δ)}$ scaling for two-armed bounded-mean Gaussian bandits, and $\sqrt{KT\log(1/δ)}$-type scaling for the $K$-armed bandits, with privacy appearing through a Gaussian variance-inflation factor for the private problems.
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