Verifiable Rewards for Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2607.00164v1
• Date: Tue, 30 Jun 2026 20:42:45 GMT
• Title: Verifiable Rewards for Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting
• Abstract summary: Reinforcement learning with rewards can train calibrated probabilistic forecasters.<n>We study aleatoric forecasting, where the forecast itself is the calibrated output and the label is one outcome.<n>We introduce a verifiable, label-free reward, a state-conditioned empirical win rate estimated from past outcomes.
• Score: 3.77661940418406
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
• Abstract: Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards can in principle train calibrated probabilistic forecasters, since a proper scoring rule such as the Brier score is computed from outcomes alone and is minimized in expectation by the true probability. In practice it degrades calibration, and existing remedies address epistemic uncertainty, where a model's confidence accompanies a verifiably correct or incorrect answer. We study aleatoric forecasting, where the forecast itself is the output and the label is one stochastic outcome, taking NFL in-game win probability as a testbed with the betting market as a reference. Rewarding the realized per-play outcome fails, because the single outcome is a noisy target and the policy gradient corrupts the chain of thought. We introduce a verifiable, label-free reward, a state-conditioned empirical win rate estimated from past outcomes, that removes the label noise, and we keep the gradient off the reasoning, by direct prediction or a gradient mask, so it cannot be corrupted. Trained with this reward alone, without human labels or supervised fine-tuning, a 7B model reaches the calibration of the betting market by direct prediction and is better calibrated than a zero-shot frontier model. That frontier model and a tabular estimator reach the same Brier score as this model, identifying the market's small remaining edge as live in-game information beyond their shared inputs. Masking the gradient, rather than dropping the chain of thought, preserves reasoning from which the forecast follows, which ordinary chain-of-thought training corrupts.

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