Catalyst Papers in Artificial Intelligence Research: A Landscape on ICLR from 2017 to 2025

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2607.05401v1
• Date: Sun, 24 May 2026 05:52:10 GMT
• Title: Catalyst Papers in Artificial Intelligence Research: A Landscape on ICLR from 2017 to 2025
• Abstract summary: OpenReview now makes numeric reviewer scores and accept/reject decisions public for every ICLR submission.<n>We compare four disruptiveness measures (the Consolidation/Destabilization (CD) index, node2vec, the direction-aware Embedding Disruptiveness Measure (EDM)) and define a five-type operational catalyst taxonomy.
• Score: 5.523132953818281
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: A small number of methodological contributions, including word2vec, the Transformer, large-scale pre-training, and reinforcement learning from human feedback, have reshaped NLP and AI research over the past decade. OpenReview now makes numeric reviewer scores and accept/reject decisions public for every ICLR submission. Whether such review signals identify trajectory-changing papers at submission time, however, remains untested at corpus scale. We answer this question on $36{,}113$ papers from ICLR 2017--2025, identifying \emph{catalysts}: papers whose descendants measurably redirect future research. We compare four disruptiveness measures (the Consolidation/Destabilization (CD) index, node2vec, the direction-aware Embedding Disruptiveness Measure (EDM), and an LLM-based semantic rater) and define a five-type operational catalyst taxonomy (topic initiator, topic bridge, within-topic redirector, simultaneous, and recognition-misaligned). EDM leads at identifying highly cited ICLR papers (AUC $0.83$ vs.\ $0.60$ for CD, $0.49$ for node2vec, and $0.42$ for the LLM rater). Topic initiators precede a $7.55{\times}$ topic-share growth and topic bridges precede an $11.52{\times}$ growth in cross-topic citation flow versus year-matched controls. We found that the peer review scores are essentially orthogonal to future disruptiveness ($|ρ|{\leq}0.005$; accepted and rejected papers have indistinguishable mean EDM, $p{=}0.11$).

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