From Seasonality to Semantics: Benchmarking a Hybrid Probabilistic Forecasting System for Roadblocks in Bolivia

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2607.21785v1
• Date: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 20:05:48 GMT
• Title: From Seasonality to Semantics: Benchmarking a Hybrid Probabilistic Forecasting System for Roadblocks in Bolivia
• Abstract summary: Roadblocks in Bolivia are a social conflict phenomenon with devastating economic impacts.<n>Despite their recurrence and impact, there is a lack of local predictive systems to anticipate these events.<n>This paper presents a hybrid probabilistic forecasting system that integrates time series decomposition and natural language processing.
• Score: 0.0
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: Roadblocks in Bolivia are a social conflict phenomenon with devastating economic impacts, estimated at losses equivalent to 4% of the national Gross Domestic Product. Despite their recurrence and impact, there is a lack of local predictive systems to anticipate these events for logistical decision-making. This paper presents a hybrid probabilistic forecasting system that integrates time series decomposition (Prophet) with natural language processing (NLP) techniques applied to a six-year corpus of Bolivian news coverage. The methodology employs vector semantic embeddings and zero-shot classification models to capture signals of discursive escalation prior to the materialization of the roadblocks. Using an expanding walk-forward validation scheme applied over 1,762 days and seven forecasting horizons (H+1 to H+7), seven internal configurations and four external benchmarks were compared, including SARIMA and LightGBM. The results demonstrate that the hybrid configuration (Prophet + NLP, C6) consistently outperforms purely statistical models, achieving an AUC-ROC of 0.677 at H+1 and reducing the Brier Score by 10.9% relative to the baseline temporal model (0.220 vs. 0.247), maintaining a statistically significant error reduction across all evaluated horizons ($p < 0.02$). This research validates that the integration of semantic news signals allows for the detection of social tension peaks not captured by historical inertia, providing a technical tool for risk management in critical transport corridors.

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