Weighted Empirical Risk Minimization for Machine Learning under Long-Range Dependence: Exact Pathwise Rates and Learning-Error Geometry

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2609.10767v1
• Date: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 19:16:17 GMT
• Title: Weighted Empirical Risk Minimization for Machine Learning under Long-Range Dependence: Exact Pathwise Rates and Learning-Error Geometry
• Abstract summary: We develop an exact almost-sure theory for smooth parametric models trained by regularly weighted empirical risk on long-range dependent data.<n>The training observations are generated from a fixed finite window of a stationary Gaussian sequence.<n>Global optimization over the admissible power exponents shows that every exponent is positive.
• Score: 0.0
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: We develop an exact almost-sure learning theory for smooth parametric models trained by regularly weighted empirical risk minimization on long-range dependent data. The training observations are generated from a fixed finite window of a stationary Gaussian sequence, and the sample weights are regularly varying. If the loss gradient at the population minimizer has Wiener-chaos rank $m$ and a nonzero low-frequency coefficient, then, in the long-memory interior regime, the finite-lag score reduces on the iterated-logarithm scale to a single weighted Hermite chaos. This yields an almost-sure Bahadur representation, an exact limsup law for the learned parameter, and, for $m\ge2$, the functional cluster set of the complete learning trajectory. The polynomial learning exponent is determined by the memory parameter and the chaos rank and is invariant under the admissible power weighting, whereas the sharp pathwise constant and cluster geometry depend on the weights. In the rank-one case, global optimization over the admissible power exponents shows that every optimizer is positive. Time-series prediction and classification examples illustrate the results.

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