Interpreting LSTM Prediction on Solar Flare Eruption with Time-series Clustering

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/1912.12360v2
• Date: Mon, 9 Mar 2020 21:36:09 GMT
• Title: Interpreting LSTM Prediction on Solar Flare Eruption with Time-series Clustering
• Authors: Hu Sun (1), Ward Manchester (2), Zhenbang Jiao (1), Xiantong Wang (2), Yang Chen (1 and 3) ((1) Department of Statistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, (2) Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, (3) Michigan Institute for Data Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor)
• Abstract summary: We conduct a post hoc analysis of solar flare predictions made by a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) model. We train the the LSTM model for binary classification to provide a prediction score for the probability of M/X class flares to occur in next hour. Our work shows that a subset of SHARP parameters contain the key signals that strong solar flare eruptions are imminent.
• Score: 0.0
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: We conduct a post hoc analysis of solar flare predictions made by a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) model employing data in the form of Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) parameters calculated from data in proximity to the magnetic polarity inversion line where the flares originate. We train the the LSTM model for binary classification to provide a prediction score for the probability of M/X class flares to occur in next hour. We then develop a dimension-reduction technique to reduce the dimensions of SHARP parameter (LSTM inputs) and demonstrate the different patterns of SHARP parameters corresponding to the transition from low to high prediction score. Our work shows that a subset of SHARP parameters contain the key signals that strong solar flare eruptions are imminent. The dynamics of these parameters have a highly uniform trajectory for many events whose LSTM prediction scores for M/X class flares transition from very low to very high. The results demonstrate the existence of a few threshold values of SHARP parameters that when surpassed indicate a high probability of the eruption of a strong flare. Our method has distilled the knowledge of solar flare eruption learnt by deep learning model and provides a more interpretable approximation, which provides physical insight to processes driving solar flares.

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