Related papers: Probabilistic Reasoning across the Causal Hierarchy

Probabilistic Reasoning across the Causal Hierarchy

URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2001.02889v5
Date: Wed, 2 Jun 2021 08:14:53 GMT
Title: Probabilistic Reasoning across the Causal Hierarchy
Authors: Duligur Ibeling, Thomas Icard
Abstract summary: Our languages are of strictly increasing expressivity. We show that satisfiability and validity for each language are decidable in space.
Score: 10.138180861883635
License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
Abstract: We propose a formalization of the three-tier causal hierarchy of association, intervention, and counterfactuals as a series of probabilistic logical languages. Our languages are of strictly increasing expressivity, the first capable of expressing quantitative probabilistic reasoning -- including conditional independence and Bayesian inference -- the second encoding do-calculus reasoning for causal effects, and the third capturing a fully expressive do-calculus for arbitrary counterfactual queries. We give a corresponding series of finitary axiomatizations complete over both structural causal models and probabilistic programs, and show that satisfiability and validity for each language are decidable in polynomial space.

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