From Probability to Consilience: How Explanatory Values Implement Bayesian Reasoning

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2006.02359v1
• Date: Wed, 3 Jun 2020 16:11:45 GMT
• Title: From Probability to Consilience: How Explanatory Values Implement Bayesian Reasoning
• Authors: Zachary Wojtowicz and Simon DeDeo
• Abstract summary: We propose a Bayesian account of how explanatory values fit together to guide explanation. The resulting taxonomy provides a set of predictors for which explanations people prefer. This framework also enables us to reinterpret the explanatory vices that drive conspiracy theories, delusions, and extremist ideologies.
• Score: 0.10152838128195464
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: Recent work in cognitive science has uncovered a diversity of explanatory values, or dimensions along which we judge explanations as better or worse. We propose a Bayesian account of how these values fit together to guide explanation. The resulting taxonomy provides a set of predictors for which explanations people prefer and shows how core values from psychology, statistics, and the philosophy of science emerge from a common mathematical framework. In addition to operationalizing the explanatory virtues associated with, for example, scientific argument-making, this framework also enables us to reinterpret the explanatory vices that drive conspiracy theories, delusions, and extremist ideologies.

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