Topology-based Clusterwise Regression for User Segmentation and Demand Forecasting

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03661v1
• Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2020 12:10:10 GMT
• Title: Topology-based Clusterwise Regression for User Segmentation and Demand Forecasting
• Authors: Rodrigo Rivera-Castro, Aleksandr Pletnev, Polina Pilyugina, Grecia Diaz, Ivan Nazarov, Wanyi Zhu and Evgeny Burnaev
• Abstract summary: Using a public and a novel proprietary data set of commercial data, this research shows that the proposed system enables analysts to both cluster their user base and plan demand at a granular level. This work seeks to introduce TDA-based clustering of time series and clusterwise regression with matrix factorization methods as viable tools for the practitioner.
• Score: 63.78344280962136
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: Topological Data Analysis (TDA) is a recent approach to analyze data sets from the perspective of their topological structure. Its use for time series data has been limited. In this work, a system developed for a leading provider of cloud computing combining both user segmentation and demand forecasting is presented. It consists of a TDA-based clustering method for time series inspired by a popular managerial framework for customer segmentation and extended to the case of clusterwise regression using matrix factorization methods to forecast demand. Increasing customer loyalty and producing accurate forecasts remain active topics of discussion both for researchers and managers. Using a public and a novel proprietary data set of commercial data, this research shows that the proposed system enables analysts to both cluster their user base and plan demand at a granular level with significantly higher accuracy than a state of the art baseline. This work thus seeks to introduce TDA-based clustering of time series and clusterwise regression with matrix factorization methods as viable tools for the practitioner.

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