Longitudinal modeling of MS patient trajectories improves predictions of disability progression

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2011.04749v1
• Date: Mon, 9 Nov 2020 20:48:00 GMT
• Title: Longitudinal modeling of MS patient trajectories improves predictions of disability progression
• Authors: Edward De Brouwer, Thijs Becker, Yves Moreau, Eva Kubala Havrdova, Maria Trojano, Sara Eichau, Serkan Ozakbas, Marco Onofrj, Pierre Grammond, Jens Kuhle, Ludwig Kappos, Patrizia Sola, Elisabetta Cartechini, Jeannette Lechner-Scott, Raed Alroughani, Oliver Gerlach, Tomas Kalincik, Franco Granella, Francois GrandMaison, Roberto Bergamaschi, Maria Jose Sa, Bart Van Wijmeersch, Aysun Soysal, Jose Luis Sanchez-Menoyo, Claudio Solaro, Cavit Boz, Gerardo Iuliano, Katherine Buzzard, Eduardo Aguera-Morales, Murat Terzi, Tamara Castillo Trivio, Daniele Spitaleri, Vincent Van Pesch, Vahid Shaygannej, Fraser Moore, Celia Oreja Guevara, Davide Maimone, Riadh Gouider, Tunde Csepany, Cristina Ramo-Tello, Liesbet Peeters
• Abstract summary: This work addresses the task of optimally extracting information from longitudinal patient data in the real-world setting. We show that with machine learning methods suited for patient trajectories modeling, we can predict disability progression of patients in a two-year horizon. Compared to the models available in the literature, this work uses the most complete patient history for MS disease progression prediction.
• Score: 2.117653457384462
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
• Abstract: Research in Multiple Sclerosis (MS) has recently focused on extracting knowledge from real-world clinical data sources. This type of data is more abundant than data produced during clinical trials and potentially more informative about real-world clinical practice. However, this comes at the cost of less curated and controlled data sets. In this work, we address the task of optimally extracting information from longitudinal patient data in the real-world setting with a special focus on the sporadic sampling problem. Using the MSBase registry, we show that with machine learning methods suited for patient trajectories modeling, such as recurrent neural networks and tensor factorization, we can predict disability progression of patients in a two-year horizon with an ROC-AUC of 0.86, which represents a 33% decrease in the ranking pair error (1-AUC) compared to reference methods using static clinical features. Compared to the models available in the literature, this work uses the most complete patient history for MS disease progression prediction.

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