Equivalence of Convergence Rates of Posterior Distributions and Bayes
Estimators for Functions and Nonparametric Functionals
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2011.13967v1
- Date: Fri, 27 Nov 2020 19:11:56 GMT
- Title: Equivalence of Convergence Rates of Posterior Distributions and Bayes
Estimators for Functions and Nonparametric Functionals
- Authors: Zejian Liu and Meng Li
- Abstract summary: We study the posterior contraction rates of a Bayesian method with Gaussian process priors in nonparametric regression.
For a general class of kernels, we establish convergence rates of the posterior measure of the regression function and its derivatives.
Our proof shows that, under certain conditions, to any convergence rate of Bayes estimators there corresponds the same convergence rate of the posterior distributions.
- Score: 4.375582647111708
- License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
- Abstract: We study the posterior contraction rates of a Bayesian method with Gaussian
process priors in nonparametric regression and its plug-in property for
differential operators. For a general class of kernels, we establish
convergence rates of the posterior measure of the regression function and its
derivatives, which are both minimax optimal up to a logarithmic factor for
functions in certain classes. Our calculation shows that the rate-optimal
estimation of the regression function and its derivatives share the same choice
of hyperparameter, indicating that the Bayes procedure remarkably adapts to the
order of derivatives and enjoys a generalized plug-in property that extends
real-valued functionals to function-valued functionals. This leads to a
practically simple method for estimating the regression function and its
derivatives, whose finite sample performance is assessed using simulations.
Our proof shows that, under certain conditions, to any convergence rate of
Bayes estimators there corresponds the same convergence rate of the posterior
distributions (i.e., posterior contraction rate), and vice versa. This
equivalence holds for a general class of Gaussian processes and covers the
regression function and its derivative functionals, under both the $L_2$ and
$L_{\infty}$ norms. In addition to connecting these two fundamental large
sample properties in Bayesian and non-Bayesian regimes, such equivalence
enables a new routine to establish posterior contraction rates by calculating
convergence rates of nonparametric point estimators.
At the core of our argument is an operator-theoretic framework for kernel
ridge regression and equivalent kernel techniques. We derive a range of sharp
non-asymptotic bounds that are pivotal in establishing convergence rates of
nonparametric point estimators and the equivalence theory, which may be of
independent interest.
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