The Smoothed Likelihood of Doctrinal Paradox
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2105.05138v2
- Date: Fri, 4 Jun 2021 16:39:25 GMT
- Title: The Smoothed Likelihood of Doctrinal Paradox
- Authors: Ao Liu, Lirong Xia
- Abstract summary: We show that under mild conditions, the smoothed likelihood of the doctrinal paradox is either $0$, $exp(-Theta(n))$, $Theta(n-1/2)$ or $Theta(1)$.
Our main theorem states that under mild conditions, the smoothed likelihood of the doctrinal paradox is either $0$, $exp(-Theta(n))$, $Theta(n-1/2)$ or $Theta(1)$.
- Score: 34.534516291695155
- License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
- Abstract: When aggregating logically interconnected judgments from $n$ agents, the
result might be inconsistent with the logical connection. This inconsistency is
known as the doctrinal paradox, which plays a central role in the field of
judgment aggregation. Despite a large body of literature on the worst-case
analysis of the doctrinal paradox, little is known about its likelihood under
natural statistical models, except for a few i.i.d. distributions [List, 2005].
In this paper, we characterize the likelihood of the doctrinal paradox under
a much more general and realistic model called the smoothed social choice
framework [Xia, 2020b], where agents' ground truth judgments are arbitrarily
correlated while the noises are independent. Our main theorem states that under
mild conditions, the smoothed likelihood of the doctrinal paradox is either
$0$, $\exp(-\Theta(n))$, $\Theta(n^{-1/2})$ or $\Theta(1)$. This not only
answers open questions by List [2005] for i.i.d. distributions but also draws
clear lines between situations with frequent and with vanishing paradoxes.
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