Sequence-Based Target Coin Prediction for Cryptocurrency Pump-and-Dump

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2204.12929v2
• Date: Mon, 3 Apr 2023 16:19:11 GMT
• Title: Sequence-Based Target Coin Prediction for Cryptocurrency Pump-and-Dump
• Authors: Sihao Hu, Zhen Zhang, Shengliang Lu, Bingsheng He, Zhao Li
• Abstract summary: This paper focuses on predicting the pump probability of all coins listed in the target exchange before a scheduled pump time. We conduct a comprehensive study of the latest 709 P&D events organized in Telegram from Jan. 2019 to Jan. 2022. We develop a novel sequence-based neural network, dubbed SNN, which encodes a channel's P&D event history into a sequence representation.
• Score: 39.06710188537909
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: With the proliferation of pump-and-dump schemes (P&Ds) in the cryptocurrency market, it becomes imperative to detect such fraudulent activities in advance to alert potentially susceptible investors. In this paper, we focus on predicting the pump probability of all coins listed in the target exchange before a scheduled pump time, which we refer to as the target coin prediction task. Firstly, we conduct a comprehensive study of the latest 709 P&D events organized in Telegram from Jan. 2019 to Jan. 2022. Our empirical analysis reveals some interesting patterns of P&Ds, such as that pumped coins exhibit intra-channel homogeneity and inter-channel heterogeneity. Here channel refers a form of group in Telegram that is frequently used to coordinate P&D events. This observation inspires us to develop a novel sequence-based neural network, dubbed SNN, which encodes a channel's P&D event history into a sequence representation via the positional attention mechanism to enhance the prediction accuracy. Positional attention helps to extract useful information and alleviates noise, especially when the sequence length is long. Extensive experiments verify the effectiveness and generalizability of proposed methods. Additionally, we release the code and P&D dataset on GitHub: https://github.com/Bayi-Hu/Pump-and-Dump-Detection-on-Cryptocurrency, and regularly update the dataset.

Related papers

• FIRP: Faster LLM inference via future intermediate representation prediction [54.897493351694195]
  FIRP generates multiple tokens instead of one at each decoding step. We conduct extensive experiments, showing a speedup ratio of 1.9x-3x in several models and datasets.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-10-27T15:53:49Z)
• Hawkes-based cryptocurrency forecasting via Limit Order Book data [1.6236898718152877]
  We present a novel prediction algorithm using limit order book (LOB) data rooted in the Hawkes model. Our approach offers a precise forecast of return signs by leveraging predictions of future financial interactions. The efficacy of our approach is validated through Monte Carlo simulations across 50 scenarios.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2023-12-21T16:31:07Z)
• Pump, Dump, and then What? The Long-Term Impact of Cryptocurrency Pump-and-Dump Schemes [0.46040036610482665]
  We study the long-term impact of pump and dump schemes on 765 coins. Despite a short-term positive impact in some cases, the long-term impact of pump and dump schemes on the targeted assets is negative, amounting to an average 30% relative drop in price a year after the pump event.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2023-09-12T21:23:50Z)
• Diffusion Variational Autoencoder for Tackling Stochasticity in Multi-Step Regression Stock Price Prediction [54.21695754082441]
  Multi-step stock price prediction over a long-term horizon is crucial for forecasting its volatility. Current solutions to multi-step stock price prediction are mostly designed for single-step, classification-based predictions. We combine a deep hierarchical variational-autoencoder (VAE) and diffusion probabilistic techniques to do seq2seq stock prediction. Our model is shown to outperform state-of-the-art solutions in terms of its prediction accuracy and variance.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2023-08-18T16:21:15Z)
• Detecting Pump&Dump Stock Market Manipulation from Online Forums [0.0]
  Manipulators accumulate small-cap stocks, disseminate false information on social media to inflate their price, and sell at the peak. We collect a dataset of stocks whose price and volume profiles have the characteristic shape of a pump&dump. We build predictive models for pump&dump events based on the language used in the social media posts.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2023-01-26T20:31:27Z)
• Crypto Pump and Dump Detection via Deep Learning Techniques [0.0]
  pump and dump schemes are some of the most common fraudulent activity regarding cryptocurrencies. We propose the novel application of two existing neural network architectures to this problem domain. We show that deep learning solutions can significantly outperform all other existing pump and dump detection methods for cryptocurrencies.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2022-05-10T03:24:32Z)
• Complex Event Forecasting with Prediction Suffix Trees: Extended Technical Report [70.7321040534471]
  Complex Event Recognition (CER) systems have become popular in the past two decades due to their ability to "instantly" detect patterns on real-time streams of events. There is a lack of methods for forecasting when a pattern might occur before such an occurrence is actually detected by a CER engine. We present a formal framework that attempts to address the issue of Complex Event Forecasting.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2021-09-01T09:52:31Z)
• The Doge of Wall Street: Analysis and Detection of Pump and Dump Cryptocurrency Manipulations [50.521292491613224]
  This paper performs an in-depth analysis of two market manipulations organized by communities over the Internet: The pump and dump and the crowd pump. The pump and dump scheme is a fraud as old as the stock market. Now, it got new vitality in the loosely regulated market of cryptocurrencies. We report on three case studies related to pump and dump groups.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2021-05-03T10:20:47Z)
• Pump and Dumps in the Bitcoin Era: Real Time Detection of Cryptocurrency Market Manipulations [50.521292491613224]
  We perform an in-depth analysis of pump and dump schemes organized by communities over the Internet. We observe how these communities are organized and how they carry out the fraud. We introduce an approach to detect the fraud in real time that outperforms the current state of the art.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2020-05-04T21:36:18Z)

This list is automatically generated from the titles and abstracts of the papers in this site.

This site does not guarantee the quality of this site (including all information) and is not responsible for any consequences.