Long-term stability and generalization of observationally-constrained stochastic data-driven models for geophysical turbulence

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2205.04601v1
• Date: Mon, 9 May 2022 23:52:37 GMT
• Title: Long-term stability and generalization of observationally-constrained stochastic data-driven models for geophysical turbulence
• Authors: Ashesh Chattopadhyay, Jaideep Pathak, Ebrahim Nabizadeh, Wahid Bhimji, Pedram Hassanzadeh
• Abstract summary: Deep learning models can mitigate certain biases in current state-of-the-art weather models. Data-driven models require a lot of training data which may not be available from reanalysis (observational data) products. deterministic data-driven forecasting models suffer from issues with long-term stability and unphysical climate drift. We propose a convolutional variational autoencoder-based data-driven model that is pre-trained on an imperfect climate model simulation.
• Score: 0.19686770963118383
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: Recent years have seen a surge in interest in building deep learning-based fully data-driven models for weather prediction. Such deep learning models if trained on observations can mitigate certain biases in current state-of-the-art weather models, some of which stem from inaccurate representation of subgrid-scale processes. However, these data-driven models, being over-parameterized, require a lot of training data which may not be available from reanalysis (observational data) products. Moreover, an accurate, noise-free, initial condition to start forecasting with a data-driven weather model is not available in realistic scenarios. Finally, deterministic data-driven forecasting models suffer from issues with long-term stability and unphysical climate drift, which makes these data-driven models unsuitable for computing climate statistics. Given these challenges, previous studies have tried to pre-train deep learning-based weather forecasting models on a large amount of imperfect long-term climate model simulations and then re-train them on available observational data. In this paper, we propose a convolutional variational autoencoder-based stochastic data-driven model that is pre-trained on an imperfect climate model simulation from a 2-layer quasi-geostrophic flow and re-trained, using transfer learning, on a small number of noisy observations from a perfect simulation. This re-trained model then performs stochastic forecasting with a noisy initial condition sampled from the perfect simulation. We show that our ensemble-based stochastic data-driven model outperforms a baseline deterministic encoder-decoder-based convolutional model in terms of short-term skills while remaining stable for long-term climate simulations yielding accurate climatology.

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