Cryptocurrency Bubble Detection: A New Stock Market Dataset, Financial
Task & Hyperbolic Models
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2206.06320v1
- Date: Wed, 11 May 2022 08:10:02 GMT
- Title: Cryptocurrency Bubble Detection: A New Stock Market Dataset, Financial
Task & Hyperbolic Models
- Authors: Ramit Sawhney, Shivam Agarwal, Vivek Mittal, Paolo Rosso, Vikram
Nanda, Sudheer Chava
- Abstract summary: We present and publicly release CryptoBubbles, a novel multi-span identification task for bubble detection.
We develop a set of sequence-to-sequence hyperbolic models suited to this multi-span identification task.
We show the practical applicability of CryptoBubbles and hyperbolic models on Reddit and Twitter.
- Score: 31.690290125073197
- License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
- Abstract: The rapid spread of information over social media influences quantitative
trading and investments. The growing popularity of speculative trading of
highly volatile assets such as cryptocurrencies and meme stocks presents a
fresh challenge in the financial realm. Investigating such "bubbles" - periods
of sudden anomalous behavior of markets are critical in better understanding
investor behavior and market dynamics. However, high volatility coupled with
massive volumes of chaotic social media texts, especially for underexplored
assets like cryptocoins pose a challenge to existing methods. Taking the first
step towards NLP for cryptocoins, we present and publicly release
CryptoBubbles, a novel multi-span identification task for bubble detection, and
a dataset of more than 400 cryptocoins from 9 exchanges over five years
spanning over two million tweets. Further, we develop a set of
sequence-to-sequence hyperbolic models suited to this multi-span identification
task based on the power-law dynamics of cryptocurrencies and user behavior on
social media. We further test the effectiveness of our models under zero-shot
settings on a test set of Reddit posts pertaining to 29 "meme stocks", which
see an increase in trade volume due to social media hype. Through quantitative,
qualitative, and zero-shot analyses on Reddit and Twitter spanning cryptocoins
and meme-stocks, we show the practical applicability of CryptoBubbles and
hyperbolic models.
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