Auditing Ranked Voting Elections with Dirichlet-Tree Models: First Steps

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2206.14605v2
• Date: Thu, 8 Sep 2022 15:26:42 GMT
• Title: Auditing Ranked Voting Elections with Dirichlet-Tree Models: First Steps
• Authors: Floyd Everest, Michelle Blom, Philip B. Stark, Peter J. Stuckey, Vanessa Teague, Damjan Vukcevic
• Abstract summary: Ranked voting systems are used in many places around the world. There is no known risk-limiting audit (RLA) method for STV other than a full hand count. We present a new approach to auditing ranked systems that uses a statistical model, a Dirichlet-tree, that can cope with high-dimensional parameters in a computationally efficient manner.
• Score: 23.14629947453497
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: Ranked voting systems, such as instant-runoff voting (IRV) and single transferable vote (STV), are used in many places around the world. They are more complex than plurality and scoring rules, presenting a challenge for auditing their outcomes: there is no known risk-limiting audit (RLA) method for STV other than a full hand count. We present a new approach to auditing ranked systems that uses a statistical model, a Dirichlet-tree, that can cope with high-dimensional parameters in a computationally efficient manner. We demonstrate this approach with a ballot-polling Bayesian audit for IRV elections. Although the technique is not known to be risk-limiting, we suggest some strategies that might allow it to be calibrated to limit risk.

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