Online Trajectory Prediction for Metropolitan Scale Mobility Digital Twin

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2207.03575v1
• Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2022 11:34:54 GMT
• Title: Online Trajectory Prediction for Metropolitan Scale Mobility Digital Twin
• Authors: Zipei Fan, Xiaojie Yang, Wei Yuan, Renhe Jiang, Quanjun Chen, Xuan Song and Ryosuke Shibasaki
• Abstract summary: Knowing "what is happening" and "what will happen" of the mobility in a city is the building block of a data-driven smart city system. We propose a two-stage human mobility predictor that stratifies the coarse and fine-grained level predictions. We tested our method using a real-world mobile phone GPS dataset in the Kanto area in Japan.
• Score: 13.07036447576714
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: Knowing "what is happening" and "what will happen" of the mobility in a city is the building block of a data-driven smart city system. In recent years, mobility digital twin that makes a virtual replication of human mobility and predicting or simulating the fine-grained movements of the subjects in a virtual space at a metropolitan scale in near real-time has shown its great potential in modern urban intelligent systems. However, few studies have provided practical solutions. The main difficulties are four-folds. 1) The daily variation of human mobility is hard to model and predict; 2) the transportation network enforces a complex constraints on human mobility; 3) generating a rational fine-grained human trajectory is challenging for existing machine learning models; and 4) making a fine-grained prediction incurs high computational costs, which is challenging for an online system. Bearing these difficulties in mind, in this paper we propose a two-stage human mobility predictor that stratifies the coarse and fine-grained level predictions. In the first stage, to encode the daily variation of human mobility at a metropolitan level, we automatically extract citywide mobility trends as crowd contexts and predict long-term and long-distance movements at a coarse level. In the second stage, the coarse predictions are resolved to a fine-grained level via a probabilistic trajectory retrieval method, which offloads most of the heavy computations to the offline phase. We tested our method using a real-world mobile phone GPS dataset in the Kanto area in Japan, and achieved good prediction accuracy and a time efficiency of about 2 min in predicting future 1h movements of about 220K mobile phone users on a single machine to support more higher-level analysis of mobility prediction.

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