Diffusion-based Time Series Imputation and Forecasting with Structured State Space Models

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2208.09399v3
• Date: Sat, 6 May 2023 12:43:37 GMT
• Title: Diffusion-based Time Series Imputation and Forecasting with Structured State Space Models
• Authors: Juan Miguel Lopez Alcaraz and Nils Strodthoff
• Abstract summary: We put forward SSSD, an imputation model that relies on two emerging technologies,conditional diffusion models and structured state space models. We demonstrate that SSSD matches or even exceeds state-of-the-art probabilistic imputation and forecasting performance on a broad range of data sets and different missingness scenarios.
• Score: 2.299617836036273
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: The imputation of missing values represents a significant obstacle for many real-world data analysis pipelines. Here, we focus on time series data and put forward SSSD, an imputation model that relies on two emerging technologies, (conditional) diffusion models as state-of-the-art generative models and structured state space models as internal model architecture, which are particularly suited to capture long-term dependencies in time series data. We demonstrate that SSSD matches or even exceeds state-of-the-art probabilistic imputation and forecasting performance on a broad range of data sets and different missingness scenarios, including the challenging blackout-missing scenarios, where prior approaches failed to provide meaningful results.

Related papers

• On conditional diffusion models for PDE simulations [53.01911265639582]
  We study score-based diffusion models for forecasting and assimilation of sparse observations. We propose an autoregressive sampling approach that significantly improves performance in forecasting. We also propose a new training strategy for conditional score-based models that achieves stable performance over a range of history lengths.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-10-21T18:31:04Z)
• A Survey on Diffusion Models for Time Series and Spatio-Temporal Data [92.1255811066468]
  We review the use of diffusion models in time series and S-temporal data, categorizing them by model, task type, data modality, and practical application domain. We categorize diffusion models into unconditioned and conditioned types discuss time series and S-temporal data separately. Our survey covers their application extensively in various fields including healthcare, recommendation, climate, energy, audio, and transportation.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-04-29T17:19:40Z)
• PDETime: Rethinking Long-Term Multivariate Time Series Forecasting from the perspective of partial differential equations [49.80959046861793]
  We present PDETime, a novel LMTF model inspired by the principles of Neural PDE solvers. Our experimentation across seven diversetemporal real-world LMTF datasets reveals that PDETime adapts effectively to the intrinsic nature of the data.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-02-25T17:39:44Z)
• A Temporally Disentangled Contrastive Diffusion Model for Spatiotemporal Imputation [35.46631415365955]
  We introduce a conditional diffusion framework called C$2$TSD, which incorporates disentangled temporal (trend and seasonality) representations as conditional information. Our experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our approach compared to a number of state-of-the-art baselines.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-02-18T11:59:04Z)
• Time Series Continuous Modeling for Imputation and Forecasting with Implicit Neural Representations [15.797295258800638]
  We introduce a novel modeling approach for time series imputation and forecasting, tailored to address the challenges often encountered in real-world data. Our method relies on a continuous-time-dependent model of the series' evolution dynamics. A modulation mechanism, driven by a meta-learning algorithm, allows adaptation to unseen samples and extrapolation beyond observed time-windows.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2023-06-09T13:20:04Z)
• Assessment of Spatio-Temporal Predictors in the Presence of Missing and Heterogeneous Data [23.280400290071732]
  Deep learning approaches achieve outstanding predictive performance in modeling modern data, despite increasing complexity and scale. evaluating the quality of predictive models becomes more challenging as traditional statistical assumptions often no longer hold. This paper introduces a residual analysis framework designed to assess the optimality of temporal-temporal predictive neural models.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2023-02-03T12:55:08Z)
• Closed-form Continuous-Depth Models [99.40335716948101]
  Continuous-depth neural models rely on advanced numerical differential equation solvers. We present a new family of models, termed Closed-form Continuous-depth (CfC) networks, that are simple to describe and at least one order of magnitude faster.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2021-06-25T22:08:51Z)
• RNN with Particle Flow for Probabilistic Spatio-temporal Forecasting [30.277213545837924]
  Many classical statistical models often fall short in handling the complexity and high non-linearity present in time-series data. In this work, we consider the time-series data as a random realization from a nonlinear state-space model. We use particle flow as the tool for approximating the posterior distribution of the states, as it is shown to be highly effective in complex, high-dimensional settings.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2021-06-10T21:49:23Z)
• Learning Interpretable Deep State Space Model for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting [98.57851612518758]
  Probabilistic time series forecasting involves estimating the distribution of future based on its history. We propose a deep state space model for probabilistic time series forecasting whereby the non-linear emission model and transition model are parameterized by networks. We show in experiments that our model produces accurate and sharp probabilistic forecasts.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2021-01-31T06:49:33Z)
• Stanza: A Nonlinear State Space Model for Probabilistic Inference in Non-Stationary Time Series [1.332560004325655]
  We propose Stanza, a nonlinear, non-stationary state space model as an intermediate approach to fill the gap between traditional models and modern deep learning approaches for complex time series. Stanza achieves forecasting accuracy competitive with deep LSTMs on real-world datasets, especially for multi-step ahead forecasting.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2020-06-11T16:06:35Z)
• A Multi-Channel Neural Graphical Event Model with Negative Evidence [76.51278722190607]
  Event datasets are sequences of events of various types occurring irregularly over the time-line. We propose a non-parametric deep neural network approach in order to estimate the underlying intensity functions.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2020-02-21T23:10:50Z)

This list is automatically generated from the titles and abstracts of the papers in this site.

This site does not guarantee the quality of this site (including all information) and is not responsible for any consequences.