Diffusion Models for High-Resolution Solar Forecasts

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2302.00170v1
• Date: Wed, 1 Feb 2023 01:32:25 GMT
• Title: Diffusion Models for High-Resolution Solar Forecasts
• Authors: Yusuke Hatanaka, Yannik Glaser, Geoff Galgon, Giuseppe Torri, Peter Sadowski
• Abstract summary: Score-based diffusion models offer a new approach to modeling probability distributions over many dependent variables. We apply the technique to day-ahead solar irradiance forecasts by generating many samples from a diffusion model trained to super-resolve numerical weather predictions.
• Score: 0.0
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: Forecasting future weather and climate is inherently difficult. Machine learning offers new approaches to increase the accuracy and computational efficiency of forecasts, but current methods are unable to accurately model uncertainty in high-dimensional predictions. Score-based diffusion models offer a new approach to modeling probability distributions over many dependent variables, and in this work, we demonstrate how they provide probabilistic forecasts of weather and climate variables at unprecedented resolution, speed, and accuracy. We apply the technique to day-ahead solar irradiance forecasts by generating many samples from a diffusion model trained to super-resolve coarse-resolution numerical weather predictions to high-resolution weather satellite observations.

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