SEEDS: Emulation of Weather Forecast Ensembles with Diffusion Models

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2306.14066v2
• Date: Fri, 15 Sep 2023 06:36:27 GMT
• Title: SEEDS: Emulation of Weather Forecast Ensembles with Diffusion Models
• Authors: Lizao Li, Rob Carver, Ignacio Lopez-Gomez, Fei Sha, John Anderson
• Abstract summary: Uncertainty quantification is crucial to decision-making. dominant approach to representing uncertainty in weather forecasting is to generate an ensemble of forecasts. We propose to amortize the computational cost by emulating these forecasts with deep generative diffusion models learned from historical data.
• Score: 13.331224394143117
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: Uncertainty quantification is crucial to decision-making. A prominent example is probabilistic forecasting in numerical weather prediction. The dominant approach to representing uncertainty in weather forecasting is to generate an ensemble of forecasts. This is done by running many physics-based simulations under different conditions, which is a computationally costly process. We propose to amortize the computational cost by emulating these forecasts with deep generative diffusion models learned from historical data. The learned models are highly scalable with respect to high-performance computing accelerators and can sample hundreds to tens of thousands of realistic weather forecasts at low cost. When designed to emulate operational ensemble forecasts, the generated ones are similar to physics-based ensembles in important statistical properties and predictive skill. When designed to correct biases present in the operational forecasting system, the generated ensembles show improved probabilistic forecast metrics. They are more reliable and forecast probabilities of extreme weather events more accurately. While this work demonstrates the utility of the methodology by focusing on weather forecasting, the generative artificial intelligence methodology can be extended for uncertainty quantification in climate modeling, where we believe the generation of very large ensembles of climate projections will play an increasingly important role in climate risk assessment.

Related papers

• Lightning-Fast Convective Outlooks: Predicting Severe Convective Environments with Global AI-based Weather Models [0.08271752505511926]
  Severe convective storms are among the most dangerous weather phenomena and accurate forecasts mitigate their impacts. Recently released suite of AI-based weather models produces medium-range forecasts within seconds. We assess the forecast skill of three top-performing AI-models for convective parameters against reanalysis and ECMWF's operational numerical weather prediction model IFS.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-06-13T07:46:03Z)
• Uncertainty quantification for data-driven weather models [0.0]
  We study and compare uncertainty quantification methods to generate probabilistic weather forecasts from a state-of-the-art deterministic data-driven weather model, Pangu-Weather. Specifically, we compare approaches for quantifying forecast uncertainty based on generating ensemble forecasts via perturbations to the initial conditions. In a case study on medium-range forecasts of selected weather variables over Europe, the probabilistic forecasts obtained by using the Pangu-Weather model in concert with uncertainty quantification methods show promising results.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-03-20T10:07:51Z)
• Weather Prediction with Diffusion Guided by Realistic Forecast Processes [49.07556359513563]
  We introduce a novel method that applies diffusion models (DM) for weather forecasting. Our method can achieve both direct and iterative forecasting with the same modeling framework. The flexibility and controllability of our model empowers a more trustworthy DL system for the general weather community.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-02-06T21:28:42Z)
• ExtremeCast: Boosting Extreme Value Prediction for Global Weather Forecast [57.6987191099507]
  We introduce Exloss, a novel loss function that performs asymmetric optimization and highlights extreme values to obtain accurate extreme weather forecast. We also introduce ExBooster, which captures the uncertainty in prediction outcomes by employing multiple random samples. Our solution can achieve state-of-the-art performance in extreme weather prediction, while maintaining the overall forecast accuracy comparable to the top medium-range forecast models.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-02-02T10:34:13Z)
• Towards an end-to-end artificial intelligence driven global weather forecasting system [57.5191940978886]
  We present an AI-based data assimilation model, i.e., Adas, for global weather variables. We demonstrate that Adas can assimilate global observations to produce high-quality analysis, enabling the system operate stably for long term. We are the first to apply the methods to real-world scenarios, which is more challenging and has considerable practical application potential.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2023-12-18T09:05:28Z)
• Performative Time-Series Forecasting [71.18553214204978]
  We formalize performative time-series forecasting (PeTS) from a machine-learning perspective. We propose a novel approach, Feature Performative-Shifting (FPS), which leverages the concept of delayed response to anticipate distribution shifts. We conduct comprehensive experiments using multiple time-series models on COVID-19 and traffic forecasting tasks.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2023-10-09T18:34:29Z)
• Precipitation nowcasting with generative diffusion models [0.0]
  We study the efficacy of diffusion models in handling the task of precipitation nowcasting. Our work is conducted in comparison to the performance of well-established U-Net models.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2023-08-13T09:51:16Z)
• Diffusion Models for High-Resolution Solar Forecasts [0.0]
  Score-based diffusion models offer a new approach to modeling probability distributions over many dependent variables. We apply the technique to day-ahead solar irradiance forecasts by generating many samples from a diffusion model trained to super-resolve numerical weather predictions.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2023-02-01T01:32:25Z)
• Learning Interpretable Deep State Space Model for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting [98.57851612518758]
  Probabilistic time series forecasting involves estimating the distribution of future based on its history. We propose a deep state space model for probabilistic time series forecasting whereby the non-linear emission model and transition model are parameterized by networks. We show in experiments that our model produces accurate and sharp probabilistic forecasts.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2021-01-31T06:49:33Z)
• A generative adversarial network approach to (ensemble) weather prediction [91.3755431537592]
  We use a conditional deep convolutional generative adversarial network to predict the geopotential height of the 500 hPa pressure level, the two-meter temperature and the total precipitation for the next 24 hours over Europe. The proposed models are trained on 4 years of ERA5 reanalysis data from 2015-2018 with the goal to predict the associated meteorological fields in 2019.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2020-06-13T20:53:17Z)

This list is automatically generated from the titles and abstracts of the papers in this site.

This site does not guarantee the quality of this site (including all information) and is not responsible for any consequences.