Oracle Efficient Online Multicalibration and Omniprediction

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2307.08999v1
• Date: Tue, 18 Jul 2023 06:34:32 GMT
• Title: Oracle Efficient Online Multicalibration and Omniprediction
• Authors: Sumegha Garg, Christopher Jung, Omer Reingold, Aaron Roth
• Abstract summary: We study omniprediction in the online adversarial setting. We develop a new online multicalibration algorithm that is well defined for infinite benchmark classes $F$. We show upper and lower bounds on the extent to which our rates can be improved.
• Score: 15.476402844435704
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: A recent line of work has shown a surprising connection between multicalibration, a multi-group fairness notion, and omniprediction, a learning paradigm that provides simultaneous loss minimization guarantees for a large family of loss functions. Prior work studies omniprediction in the batch setting. We initiate the study of omniprediction in the online adversarial setting. Although there exist algorithms for obtaining notions of multicalibration in the online adversarial setting, unlike batch algorithms, they work only for small finite classes of benchmark functions $F$, because they require enumerating every function $f \in F$ at every round. In contrast, omniprediction is most interesting for learning theoretic hypothesis classes $F$, which are generally continuously large. We develop a new online multicalibration algorithm that is well defined for infinite benchmark classes $F$, and is oracle efficient (i.e. for any class $F$, the algorithm has the form of an efficient reduction to a no-regret learning algorithm for $F$). The result is the first efficient online omnipredictor -- an oracle efficient prediction algorithm that can be used to simultaneously obtain no regret guarantees to all Lipschitz convex loss functions. For the class $F$ of linear functions, we show how to make our algorithm efficient in the worst case. Also, we show upper and lower bounds on the extent to which our rates can be improved: our oracle efficient algorithm actually promises a stronger guarantee called swap-omniprediction, and we prove a lower bound showing that obtaining $O(\sqrt{T})$ bounds for swap-omniprediction is impossible in the online setting. On the other hand, we give a (non-oracle efficient) algorithm which can obtain the optimal $O(\sqrt{T})$ omniprediction bounds without going through multicalibration, giving an information theoretic separation between these two solution concepts.

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