Flashpoints Signal Hidden Inherent Instabilities in Land-Use Planning
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2308.07714v1
- Date: Tue, 15 Aug 2023 11:47:16 GMT
- Title: Flashpoints Signal Hidden Inherent Instabilities in Land-Use Planning
- Authors: Hazhir Aliahmadi, Maeve Beckett, Sam Connolly, Dongmei Chen, Greg van
Anders
- Abstract summary: We show that optimization-based planning approaches with generic planning criteria generate a series of unstable "flashpoints"
We show that instabilities lead to regions of ambiguity in land-use type that we term "gray areas"
- Score: 0.0
- License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
- Abstract: Land-use decision-making processes have a long history of producing globally
pervasive systemic equity and sustainability concerns. Quantitative,
optimization-based planning approaches, e.g. Multi-Objective Land Allocation
(MOLA), seemingly open the possibility to improve objectivity and transparency
by explicitly evaluating planning priorities by the type, amount, and location
of land uses. Here, we show that optimization-based planning approaches with
generic planning criteria generate a series of unstable "flashpoints" whereby
tiny changes in planning priorities produce large-scale changes in the amount
of land use by type. We give quantitative arguments that the flashpoints we
uncover in MOLA models are examples of a more general family of instabilities
that occur whenever planning accounts for factors that coordinate use on- and
between-sites, regardless of whether these planning factors are formulated
explicitly or implicitly. We show that instabilities lead to regions of
ambiguity in land-use type that we term "gray areas". By directly mapping gray
areas between flashpoints, we show that quantitative methods retain utility by
reducing combinatorially large spaces of possible land-use patterns to a small,
characteristic set that can engage stakeholders to arrive at more efficient and
just outcomes.
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