Related papers: Logic of subjective probability

Logic of subjective probability

URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2309.01173v1
Date: Sun, 3 Sep 2023 13:31:40 GMT
Title: Logic of subjective probability
Authors: Vladimir Vovk
Abstract summary: I discuss both syntax and semantics of subjective probability. Jeffreys's law states that two successful probability forecasters must issue forecasts that are close to each other. I will discuss connections between subjective and frequentist probability.
Score: 0.0
License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
Abstract: In this paper I discuss both syntax and semantics of subjective probability. The semantics determines ways of testing probability statements. Among important varieties of subjective probabilities are intersubjective probabilities and impersonal probabilities, and I will argue that well-tested impersonal probabilities acquire features of objective probabilities. Jeffreys's law, my next topic, states that two successful probability forecasters must issue forecasts that are close to each other, thus supporting the idea of objective probabilities. Finally, I will discuss connections between subjective and frequentist probability.

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