Telescope: An Automated Hybrid Forecasting Approach on a Level-Playing Field

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2309.15871v1
• Date: Tue, 26 Sep 2023 22:42:25 GMT
• Title: Telescope: An Automated Hybrid Forecasting Approach on a Level-Playing Field
• Authors: Andr\'e Bauer and Mark Leznik and Michael Stenger and Robert Leppich and Nikolas Herbst, Samuel Kounev and Ian Foster
• Abstract summary: We introduce Telescope, a novel machine learning-based forecasting approach. It automatically retrieves relevant information from a given time series and splits it into parts, handling each of them separately. It operates with just one time series and provides forecasts within seconds without any additional setup.
• Score: 2.287583712482583
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: In many areas of decision-making, forecasting is an essential pillar. Consequently, many different forecasting methods have been proposed. From our experience, recently presented forecasting methods are computationally intensive, poorly automated, tailored to a particular data set, or they lack a predictable time-to-result. To this end, we introduce Telescope, a novel machine learning-based forecasting approach that automatically retrieves relevant information from a given time series and splits it into parts, handling each of them separately. In contrast to deep learning methods, our approach doesn't require parameterization or the need to train and fit a multitude of parameters. It operates with just one time series and provides forecasts within seconds without any additional setup. Our experiments show that Telescope outperforms recent methods by providing accurate and reliable forecasts while making no assumptions about the analyzed time series.

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