Spatial-temporal Forecasting for Regions without Observations

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2401.10518v1
• Date: Fri, 19 Jan 2024 06:26:05 GMT
• Title: Spatial-temporal Forecasting for Regions without Observations
• Authors: Xinyu Su and Jianzhong Qi and Egemen Tanin and Yanchuan Chang and Majid Sarvi
• Abstract summary: We study spatial-temporal forecasting for a region of interest without any historical observations. We propose a model named STSM for the task. Our key insight is to learn from the locations that resemble those in the region of interest.
• Score: 13.805203053973772
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: Spatial-temporal forecasting plays an important role in many real-world applications, such as traffic forecasting, air pollutant forecasting, crowd-flow forecasting, and so on. State-of-the-art spatial-temporal forecasting models take data-driven approaches and rely heavily on data availability. Such models suffer from accuracy issues when data is incomplete, which is common in reality due to the heavy costs of deploying and maintaining sensors for data collection. A few recent studies attempted to address the issue of incomplete data. They typically assume some data availability in a region of interest either for a short period or at a few locations. In this paper, we further study spatial-temporal forecasting for a region of interest without any historical observations, to address scenarios such as unbalanced region development, progressive deployment of sensors or lack of open data. We propose a model named STSM for the task. The model takes a contrastive learning-based approach to learn spatial-temporal patterns from adjacent regions that have recorded data. Our key insight is to learn from the locations that resemble those in the region of interest, and we propose a selective masking strategy to enable the learning. As a result, our model outperforms adapted state-of-the-art models, reducing errors consistently over both traffic and air pollutant forecasting tasks. The source code is available at https://github.com/suzy0223/STSM.

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