Adaptive time series forecasting with markovian variance switching

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2402.14684v1
• Date: Thu, 22 Feb 2024 16:40:55 GMT
• Title: Adaptive time series forecasting with markovian variance switching
• Authors: Baptiste Ab\'el\`es, Joseph de Vilmarest, Olivier Wintemberger
• Abstract summary: We propose a new way of estimating variances based on online learning theory. We adapt expert aggregation methods to learn the variances over time. We show that this method is robust to misspecification and outperforms traditional expert aggregation.
• Score: 1.2891210250935148
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: Adaptive time series forecasting is essential for prediction under regime changes. Several classical methods assume linear Gaussian state space model (LGSSM) with variances constant in time. However, there are many real-world processes that cannot be captured by such models. We consider a state-space model with Markov switching variances. Such dynamical systems are usually intractable because of their computational complexity increasing exponentially with time; Variational Bayes (VB) techniques have been applied to this problem. In this paper, we propose a new way of estimating variances based on online learning theory; we adapt expert aggregation methods to learn the variances over time. We apply the proposed method to synthetic data and to the problem of electricity load forecasting. We show that this method is robust to misspecification and outperforms traditional expert aggregation.

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