Test Time Learning for Time Series Forecasting

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2409.14012v2
• Date: Wed, 2 Oct 2024 16:40:10 GMT
• Title: Test Time Learning for Time Series Forecasting
• Authors: Panayiotis Christou, Shichu Chen, Xupeng Chen, Parijat Dube,
• Abstract summary: Test-Time Training (TTT) modules consistently outperform state-of-the-art models, including the Mamba-based TimeMachine. Our results show significant improvements in Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) This work sets a new benchmark for time-series forecasting and lays the groundwork for future research in scalable, high-performance forecasting models.
• Score: 1.4605709124065924
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: Time-series forecasting has seen significant advancements with the introduction of token prediction mechanisms such as multi-head attention. However, these methods often struggle to achieve the same performance as in language modeling, primarily due to the quadratic computational cost and the complexity of capturing long-range dependencies in time-series data. State-space models (SSMs), such as Mamba, have shown promise in addressing these challenges by offering efficient solutions with linear RNNs capable of modeling long sequences with larger context windows. However, there remains room for improvement in accuracy and scalability. We propose the use of Test-Time Training (TTT) modules in a parallel architecture to enhance performance in long-term time series forecasting. Through extensive experiments on standard benchmark datasets, we demonstrate that TTT modules consistently outperform state-of-the-art models, including the Mamba-based TimeMachine, particularly in scenarios involving extended sequence and prediction lengths. Our results show significant improvements in Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE), especially on larger datasets such as Electricity, Traffic, and Weather, underscoring the effectiveness of TTT in capturing long-range dependencies. Additionally, we explore various convolutional architectures within the TTT framework, showing that even simple configurations like 1D convolution with small filters can achieve competitive results. This work sets a new benchmark for time-series forecasting and lays the groundwork for future research in scalable, high-performance forecasting models.

Related papers

• UmambaTSF: A U-shaped Multi-Scale Long-Term Time Series Forecasting Method Using Mamba [7.594115034632109]
  We propose UmambaTSF, a novel long-term time series forecasting framework. It integrates multi-scale feature extraction capabilities of U-shaped encoder-decoder multilayer perceptrons (MLP) with Mamba's long sequence representation. UmambaTSF achieves state-of-the-art performance and excellent generality on widely used benchmark datasets.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-10-15T04:56:43Z)
• Integration of Mamba and Transformer -- MAT for Long-Short Range Time Series Forecasting with Application to Weather Dynamics [7.745945701278489]
  Long-short range time series forecasting is essential for predicting future trends and patterns over extended periods. Deep learning models such as Transformers have made significant strides in advancing time series forecasting. This article examines the advantages and disadvantages of both Mamba and Transformer models.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-09-13T04:23:54Z)
• Unified Training of Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformers [104.56318980466742]
  We present a Masked-based Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformer (Moirai) Moirai is trained on our newly introduced Large-scale Open Time Series Archive (LOTSA) featuring over 27B observations across nine domains. Moirai achieves competitive or superior performance as a zero-shot forecaster when compared to full-shot models.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-02-04T20:00:45Z)
• Timer: Generative Pre-trained Transformers Are Large Time Series Models [83.03091523806668]
  This paper aims at the early development of large time series models (LTSM) During pre-training, we curate large-scale datasets with up to 1 billion time points. To meet diverse application needs, we convert forecasting, imputation, and anomaly detection of time series into a unified generative task.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-02-04T06:55:55Z)
• Time-LLM: Time Series Forecasting by Reprogramming Large Language Models [110.20279343734548]
  Time series forecasting holds significant importance in many real-world dynamic systems. We present Time-LLM, a reprogramming framework to repurpose large language models for time series forecasting. Time-LLM is a powerful time series learner that outperforms state-of-the-art, specialized forecasting models.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2023-10-03T01:31:25Z)
• Unified Long-Term Time-Series Forecasting Benchmark [0.6526824510982802]
  We present a comprehensive dataset designed explicitly for long-term time-series forecasting. We incorporate a collection of datasets obtained from diverse, dynamic systems and real-life records. To determine the most effective model in diverse scenarios, we conduct an extensive benchmarking analysis using classical and state-of-the-art models. Our findings reveal intriguing performance comparisons among these models, highlighting the dataset-dependent nature of model effectiveness.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2023-09-27T18:59:00Z)
• MPR-Net:Multi-Scale Pattern Reproduction Guided Universality Time Series Interpretable Forecasting [13.790498420659636]
  Time series forecasting has received wide interest from existing research due to its broad applications inherent challenging. This paper proposes a forecasting model, MPR-Net. It first adaptively decomposes multi-scale historical series patterns using convolution operation, then constructs a pattern extension forecasting method based on the prior knowledge of pattern reproduction, and finally reconstructs future patterns into future series using deconvolution operation. By leveraging the temporal dependencies present in the time series, MPR-Net not only achieves linear time complexity, but also makes the forecasting process interpretable.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2023-07-13T13:16:01Z)
• Grouped self-attention mechanism for a memory-efficient Transformer [64.0125322353281]
  Real-world tasks such as forecasting weather, electricity consumption, and stock market involve predicting data that vary over time. Time-series data are generally recorded over a long period of observation with long sequences owing to their periodic characteristics and long-range dependencies over time. We propose two novel modules, Grouped Self-Attention (GSA) and Compressed Cross-Attention (CCA) Our proposed model efficiently exhibited reduced computational complexity and performance comparable to or better than existing methods.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2022-10-02T06:58:49Z)
• Pre-training Enhanced Spatial-temporal Graph Neural Network for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting [13.441945545904504]
  We propose a novel framework, in which STGNN is Enhanced by a scalable time series Pre-training model (STEP) Specifically, we design a pre-training model to efficiently learn temporal patterns from very long-term history time series. Our framework is capable of significantly enhancing downstream STGNNs, and our pre-training model aptly captures temporal patterns.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2022-06-18T04:24:36Z)
• Transformer Hawkes Process [79.16290557505211]
  We propose a Transformer Hawkes Process (THP) model, which leverages the self-attention mechanism to capture long-term dependencies. THP outperforms existing models in terms of both likelihood and event prediction accuracy by a notable margin. We provide a concrete example, where THP achieves improved prediction performance for learning multiple point processes when incorporating their relational information.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2020-02-21T13:48:13Z)
• Convolutional Tensor-Train LSTM for Spatio-temporal Learning [116.24172387469994]
  We propose a higher-order LSTM model that can efficiently learn long-term correlations in the video sequence. This is accomplished through a novel tensor train module that performs prediction by combining convolutional features across time. Our results achieve state-of-the-art performance-art in a wide range of applications and datasets.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2020-02-21T05:00:01Z)

This list is automatically generated from the titles and abstracts of the papers in this site.

This site does not guarantee the quality of this site (including all information) and is not responsible for any consequences.