Full-waveform earthquake source inversion using simulation-based inference

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2410.23238v1
• Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2024 17:25:57 GMT
• Title: Full-waveform earthquake source inversion using simulation-based inference
• Authors: A. A. Saoulis, D. Piras, A. Spurio Mancini, B. Joachimi, A. M. G. Ferreira,
• Abstract summary: We present a novel framework for full-waveform seismic source inversion using simulation-based inference ( SBI) We show that SBI produces well-calibrated posteriors that generally agree with the true seismic source parameters. We apply our methodology to a pair of moderate magnitude earthquakes in the North Atlantic.
• Score: 0.0
• License:
• Abstract: This paper presents a novel framework for full-waveform seismic source inversion using simulation-based inference (SBI). Traditional probabilistic approaches often rely on simplifying assumptions about data errors, which we show can lead to inaccurate uncertainty quantification. SBI addresses this limitation by building an empirical probabilistic model of the data errors using machine learning models, known as neural density estimators, which can then be integrated into the Bayesian inference framework. We apply the SBI framework to point-source moment tensor inversions as well as joint moment tensor and time-location inversions. We construct a range of synthetic examples to explore the quality of the SBI solutions, as well as to compare the SBI results with standard Gaussian likelihood-based Bayesian inversions. We then demonstrate that under real seismic noise, common Gaussian likelihood assumptions for treating full-waveform data yield overconfident posterior distributions that underestimate the moment tensor component uncertainties by up to a factor of 3. We contrast this with SBI, which produces well-calibrated posteriors that generally agree with the true seismic source parameters, and offers an order-of-magnitude reduction in the number of simulations required to perform inference compared to standard Monte Carlo techniques. Finally, we apply our methodology to a pair of moderate magnitude earthquakes in the North Atlantic. We utilise seismic waveforms recorded by the recent UPFLOW ocean bottom seismometer array as well as by regional land stations in the Azores, comparing full moment tensor and source-time location posteriors between SBI and a Gaussian likelihood approach. We find that our adaptation of SBI can be directly applied to real earthquake sources to efficiently produce high quality posterior distributions that significantly improve upon Gaussian likelihood approaches.

Related papers

• A Likelihood Based Approach to Distribution Regression Using Conditional Deep Generative Models [6.647819824559201]
  We study the large-sample properties of a likelihood-based approach for estimating conditional deep generative models. Our results lead to the convergence rate of a sieve maximum likelihood estimator for estimating the conditional distribution.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-10-02T20:46:21Z)
• Diffusion posterior sampling for simulation-based inference in tall data settings [53.17563688225137]
  Simulation-based inference ( SBI) is capable of approximating the posterior distribution that relates input parameters to a given observation. In this work, we consider a tall data extension in which multiple observations are available to better infer the parameters of the model. We compare our method to recently proposed competing approaches on various numerical experiments and demonstrate its superiority in terms of numerical stability and computational cost.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-04-11T09:23:36Z)
• Distributed Markov Chain Monte Carlo Sampling based on the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers [143.6249073384419]
  In this paper, we propose a distributed sampling scheme based on the alternating direction method of multipliers. We provide both theoretical guarantees of our algorithm's convergence and experimental evidence of its superiority to the state-of-the-art. In simulation, we deploy our algorithm on linear and logistic regression tasks and illustrate its fast convergence compared to existing gradient-based methods.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-01-29T02:08:40Z)
• Calibrating Neural Simulation-Based Inference with Differentiable Coverage Probability [50.44439018155837]
  We propose to include a calibration term directly into the training objective of the neural model. By introducing a relaxation of the classical formulation of calibration error we enable end-to-end backpropagation. It is directly applicable to existing computational pipelines allowing reliable black-box posterior inference.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2023-10-20T10:20:45Z)
• Bayesian Renormalization [68.8204255655161]
  We present a fully information theoretic approach to renormalization inspired by Bayesian statistical inference. The main insight of Bayesian Renormalization is that the Fisher metric defines a correlation length that plays the role of an emergent RG scale. We provide insight into how the Bayesian Renormalization scheme relates to existing methods for data compression and data generation.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2023-05-17T18:00:28Z)
• Posterior sampling with CNN-based, Plug-and-Play regularization with applications to Post-Stack Seismic Inversion [0.0]
  Uncertainty quantification is crucial to inverse problems, as it could provide valuable information about the inversion results. We present a framework that performs posterior inference by implicitly regularizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence loss with a CNN-based denoiser. We call this algorithm new Plug-and-Play Stein Vari-SVGD and demonstrate its ability in producing high-resolution, trustworthy samples.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2022-12-30T08:20:49Z)
• Calibration and Uncertainty Quantification of Bayesian Convolutional Neural Networks for Geophysical Applications [0.0]
  It is common to incorporate the uncertainty of predictions such subsurface models should provide calibrated probabilities and the associated uncertainties in their predictions. It has been shown that popular Deep Learning-based models are often miscalibrated, and due to their deterministic nature, provide no means to interpret the uncertainty of their predictions. We compare three different approaches obtaining probabilistic models based on convolutional neural networks in a Bayesian formalism.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2021-05-25T17:54:23Z)
• Bayesian Imaging With Data-Driven Priors Encoded by Neural Networks: Theory, Methods, and Algorithms [2.266704469122763]
  This paper proposes a new methodology for performing Bayesian inference in imaging inverse problems where the prior knowledge is available in the form of training data. We establish the existence and well-posedness of the associated posterior moments under easily verifiable conditions. A model accuracy analysis suggests that the Bayesian probability probabilities reported by the data-driven models are also remarkably accurate under a frequentist definition.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2021-03-18T11:34:08Z)
• Leveraging Global Parameters for Flow-based Neural Posterior Estimation [90.21090932619695]
  Inferring the parameters of a model based on experimental observations is central to the scientific method. A particularly challenging setting is when the model is strongly indeterminate, i.e., when distinct sets of parameters yield identical observations. We present a method for cracking such indeterminacy by exploiting additional information conveyed by an auxiliary set of observations sharing global parameters.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2021-02-12T12:23:13Z)
• Semiparametric Bayesian Forecasting of Spatial Earthquake Occurrences [77.68028443709338]
  We propose a fully Bayesian formulation of the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. The occurrence of the mainshock earthquakes in a geographical region is assumed to follow an inhomogeneous spatial point process.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2020-02-05T10:11:26Z)

This list is automatically generated from the titles and abstracts of the papers in this site.

This site does not guarantee the quality of this site (including all information) and is not responsible for any consequences.