Indexing Economic Fluctuation Narratives from Keiki Watchers Survey

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2412.01265v1
• Date: Mon, 02 Dec 2024 08:32:02 GMT
• Title: Indexing Economic Fluctuation Narratives from Keiki Watchers Survey
• Authors: Eriko Shigetsugu, Hiroki Sakaji, Itsuki Noda,
• Abstract summary: We design indices of economic fluctuation from economic surveys by using our previously proposed narrative framework. It is observed that the proposed indices had a stronger correlation with cumulative lagging diffusion index than other types of diffusion indices.
• Score: 2.4313429258746955
• License:
• Abstract: In this paper, we design indices of economic fluctuation narratives derived from economic surveys. Companies, governments, and investors rely on key metrics like GDP and industrial production indices to predict economic trends. However, they have yet to effectively leverage the wealth of information contained in economic text, such as causal relationships, in their economic forecasting. Therefore, we design indices of economic fluctuation from economic surveys by using our previously proposed narrative framework. From the evaluation results, it is observed that the proposed indices had a stronger correlation with cumulative lagging diffusion index than other types of diffusion indices.

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