Self-attentive Transformer for Fast and Accurate Postprocessing of Temperature and Wind Speed Forecasts

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2412.13957v1
• Date: Wed, 18 Dec 2024 15:37:09 GMT
• Title: Self-attentive Transformer for Fast and Accurate Postprocessing of Temperature and Wind Speed Forecasts
• Authors: Aaron Van Poecke, Tobias Sebastian Finn, Ruoke Meng, Joris Van den Bergh, Geert Smet, Jonathan Demaeyer, Piet Termonia, Hossein Tabari, Peter Hellinckx,
• Abstract summary: Current postprocessing techniques often require separate models for each lead time and disregard possible inter-ensemble relationships. In this work, we tackle these shortcomings with an innovative, fast and accurate Transformer which postprocesses each ensemble member individually. Our approach significantly improves the original forecasts, as measured by the CRPS, with 17.5 % for two-meter temperature, nearly 5% for ten-meter wind speed and 5.3 % for one hundred-meter wind speed.
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• Abstract: Current postprocessing techniques often require separate models for each lead time and disregard possible inter-ensemble relationships by either correcting each member separately or by employing distributional approaches. In this work, we tackle these shortcomings with an innovative, fast and accurate Transformer which postprocesses each ensemble member individually while allowing information exchange across variables, spatial dimensions and lead times by means of multi-headed self-attention. Weather foreacasts are postprocessed over 20 lead times simultaneously while including up to twelve meteorological predictors. We use the EUPPBench dataset for training which contains ensemble predictions from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts' integrated forecasting system alongside corresponding observations. The work presented here is the first to postprocess the ten and one hundred-meter wind speed forecasts within this benchmark dataset, while also correcting the two-meter temperature. Our approach significantly improves the original forecasts, as measured by the CRPS, with 17.5 % for two-meter temperature, nearly 5% for ten-meter wind speed and 5.3 % for one hundred-meter wind speed, outperforming a classical member-by-member approach employed as competitive benchmark. Furthermore, being up to 75 times faster, it fulfills the demand for rapid operational weather forecasts in various downstream applications, including renewable energy forecasting.

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