Anytime-valid, Bayes-assisted,Prediction-Powered Inference

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2505.18000v1
• Date: Fri, 23 May 2025 15:05:49 GMT
• Title: Anytime-valid, Bayes-assisted,Prediction-Powered Inference
• Authors: Valentin Kilian, Stefano Cortinovis, François Caron,
• Abstract summary: Given a large pool of unlabelled data, prediction-powered inference (PPI) leverages machine learning predictions to increase statistical efficiency.<n>We extend the PPI framework to the sequential setting, where labelled and unlabelled datasets grow over time.<n>We propose prediction-powered confidence sequence procedures that are valid uniformly over time and naturally accommodate prior knowledge on the quality of the predictions.
• Score: 0.0
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
• Abstract: Given a large pool of unlabelled data and a smaller amount of labels, prediction-powered inference (PPI) leverages machine learning predictions to increase the statistical efficiency of standard confidence interval procedures based solely on labelled data, while preserving their fixed-time validity. In this paper, we extend the PPI framework to the sequential setting, where labelled and unlabelled datasets grow over time. Exploiting Ville's inequality and the method of mixtures, we propose prediction-powered confidence sequence procedures that are valid uniformly over time and naturally accommodate prior knowledge on the quality of the predictions to further boost efficiency. We carefully illustrate the design choices behind our method and demonstrate its effectiveness in real and synthetic examples.

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