Probabilities of Causation and Root Cause Analysis with Quasi-Markovian Models

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2509.02535v1
• Date: Tue, 02 Sep 2025 17:39:23 GMT
• Title: Probabilities of Causation and Root Cause Analysis with Quasi-Markovian Models
• Authors: Eduardo Rocha Laurentino, Fabio Gagliardi Cozman, Denis Deratani Maua, Daniel Angelo Esteves Lawand, Davi Goncalves Bezerra Coelho, Lucas Martins Marques,
• Abstract summary: This paper introduces both algorithmic simplifications, significantly reducing the computational complexity of calculating tighter bounds for these probabilities.<n>It also introduces a novel methodological framework for Root Cause Analysis that systematically employs these causal metrics to rank entire causal paths.
• Score: 0.0
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
• Abstract: Probabilities of causation provide principled ways to assess causal relationships but face computational challenges due to partial identifiability and latent confounding. This paper introduces both algorithmic simplifications, significantly reducing the computational complexity of calculating tighter bounds for these probabilities, and a novel methodological framework for Root Cause Analysis that systematically employs these causal metrics to rank entire causal paths.

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