Proximity-Based Evidence Retrieval for Uncertainty-Aware Neural Networks
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2509.13338v1
- Date: Thu, 11 Sep 2025 13:12:22 GMT
- Title: Proximity-Based Evidence Retrieval for Uncertainty-Aware Neural Networks
- Abstract summary: This work proposes an evidence-retrieval mechanism for uncertainty-aware decision-making.<n>For each test instance, exemplars are retrieved in an embedding space; their predictive distributions are fused via Dempster-Shafer theory.<n>Because the supporting evidences are explicit, decisions are transparent and auditable.
- Score: 6.9681910774977815
- License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
- Abstract: This work proposes an evidence-retrieval mechanism for uncertainty-aware decision-making that replaces a single global cutoff with an evidence-conditioned, instance-adaptive criterion. For each test instance, proximal exemplars are retrieved in an embedding space; their predictive distributions are fused via Dempster-Shafer theory. The resulting fused belief acts as a per-instance thresholding mechanism. Because the supporting evidences are explicit, decisions are transparent and auditable. Experiments on CIFAR-10/100 with BiT and ViT backbones show higher or comparable uncertainty-aware performance with materially fewer confidently incorrect outcomes and a sustainable review load compared with applying threshold on prediction entropy. Notably, only a few evidences are sufficient to realize these gains; increasing the evidence set yields only modest changes. These results indicate that evidence-conditioned tagging provides a more reliable and interpretable alternative to fixed prediction entropy thresholds for operational uncertainty-aware decision-making.
Related papers
- Prediction certification cannot replace explanation certification: a competence envelope for trustworthy AI under compound stress [0.0]
We show that a reliable model and a compromised one can be identical under every prediction-side certificate.<n>We introduce a framework that combines prediction and explanation certification into a single deployable criterion.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2026-08-21T07:45:17Z) - ELVAE: Evidential Learning-Based Variational Autoencoder for Uncertainty-Aware Generation [7.5571037918649155]
Variational autoencoders generate samples from probabilistic latent representations but do not distinguish uncertainty about the latent location from variability around it.<n>We formulate ELVAE, an evidential learning-based VAE in which each latent coordinate is governed by an input-dependent normal-inverse-gamma posterior.<n>Low-uncertainty anchors support more reliable synthetic samples, while high-uncertainty anchors can be deliberately exploited for stress testing.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2026-08-11T02:45:59Z) - When Does Quality-Aware Multimodal Fusion Matter? A Leakage-Safe Diagnostic for Decision-Level Dependence [3.899171236602393]
We propose a simple diagnostic to test whether reliability information is used during inference.<n>Experiments on stress recognition and CMU-MOSEI for sentiment analysis show that permuting reliability scores leaves performance unchanged.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2026-06-25T00:14:22Z) - Mitigating Visual Hallucinations in Multimodal Systems through Retrieval-Augmented Reliability-Aware Inference [1.064167691614925]
This work proposes a retrieval-augmented reliability-aware inference framework for trustworthy multimodal visual understanding.<n>The proposed framework constructs an external visual evidence database using pretrained visual embeddings and nearest-neighbor retrieval over normalized feature representations.<n>Experiments on ImageNet-100 demonstrate that the proposed reliability-aware framework improves accepted prediction accuracy from 85.84% to 88.88% at 89.04% coverage.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2026-06-14T12:32:38Z) - Towards Trustworthy Depression Estimation via Disentangled Evidential Learning [50.22167852149165]
We propose EviDep, an evidential learning framework that jointly quantifies depression severity.<n>EviDep enforces strict information integrity to guarantee robust evidence synthesis.<n>It achieves state-of-the-art predictive accuracy and superior uncertainty calibration, delivering a robust fail-safe mechanism for trustworthy clinical screening.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2026-04-17T13:27:11Z) - Credal Ensemble Distillation for Uncertainty Quantification [12.36665123584814]
We propose credal ensemble distillation (CED), a framework that compresses a deep ensemble into a single model, CREDIT, for classification tasks.<n>CED achieves superior or comparable uncertainty estimation compared to several existing baselines, while substantially reducing inference overhead compared to deep ensembles.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-11-14T14:53:42Z) - Trusted Uncertainty in Large Language Models: A Unified Framework for Confidence Calibration and Risk-Controlled Refusal [31.458406135473805]
We present UniCR, a unified framework that turns heterogeneous uncertainty evidence into a calibrated probability of correctness.<n>UniCR learns a lightweight calibration head with temperature scaling and proper scoring.<n>Experiments on short-form QA, code generation with execution tests, and retrieval-augmented long-form QA show consistent improvements in calibration metrics.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-09-01T13:14:58Z) - COIN: Uncertainty-Guarding Selective Question Answering for Foundation Models with Provable Risk Guarantees [51.5976496056012]
COIN is an uncertainty-guarding selection framework that calibrates statistically valid thresholds to filter a single generated answer per question.<n>COIN estimates the empirical error rate on a calibration set and applies confidence interval methods to establish a high-probability upper bound on the true error rate.<n>We demonstrate COIN's robustness in risk control, strong test-time power in retaining admissible answers, and predictive efficiency under limited calibration data.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-06-25T07:04:49Z) - TrustLoRA: Low-Rank Adaptation for Failure Detection under Out-of-distribution Data [62.22804234013273]
We propose a simple failure detection framework to unify and facilitate classification with rejection under both covariate and semantic shifts.<n>Our key insight is that by separating and consolidating failure-specific reliability knowledge with low-rank adapters, we can enhance the failure detection ability effectively and flexibly.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-04-20T09:20:55Z) - Device-independent certification of desirable properties with a confidence interval [0.0]
We provide a versatile solution for rigorous device-independent certification.
We show how the PBR protocol and the martingale-based protocol often offer similar performance.
Our findings also show that the performance of the martingale-based protocol may be severely affected by one's choice of the witness.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-01-12T15:21:21Z) - Reliability-Aware Prediction via Uncertainty Learning for Person Image
Retrieval [51.83967175585896]
UAL aims at providing reliability-aware predictions by considering data uncertainty and model uncertainty simultaneously.
Data uncertainty captures the noise" inherent in the sample, while model uncertainty depicts the model's confidence in the sample's prediction.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2022-10-24T17:53:20Z) - Uncertain Evidence in Probabilistic Models and Stochastic Simulators [80.40110074847527]
We consider the problem of performing Bayesian inference in probabilistic models where observations are accompanied by uncertainty, referred to as uncertain evidence'
We explore how to interpret uncertain evidence, and by extension the importance of proper interpretation as it pertains to inference about latent variables.
We devise concrete guidelines on how to account for uncertain evidence and we provide new insights, particularly regarding consistency.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2022-10-21T20:32:59Z) - Augmentation by Counterfactual Explanation -- Fixing an Overconfident
Classifier [11.233334009240947]
A highly accurate but overconfident model is ill-suited for deployment in critical applications such as healthcare and autonomous driving.
This paper proposes an application of counterfactual explanations in fixing an over-confident classifier.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2022-10-21T18:53:16Z) - Dense Uncertainty Estimation via an Ensemble-based Conditional Latent
Variable Model [68.34559610536614]
We argue that the aleatoric uncertainty is an inherent attribute of the data and can only be correctly estimated with an unbiased oracle model.
We propose a new sampling and selection strategy at train time to approximate the oracle model for aleatoric uncertainty estimation.
Our results show that our solution achieves both accurate deterministic results and reliable uncertainty estimation.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2021-11-22T08:54:10Z) - Uncertainty-Aware Reliable Text Classification [21.517852608625127]
Deep neural networks have significantly contributed to the success in predictive accuracy for classification tasks.
They tend to make over-confident predictions in real-world settings, where domain shifting and out-of-distribution examples exist.
We propose an inexpensive framework that adopts both auxiliary outliers and pseudo off-manifold samples to train the model with prior knowledge of a certain class.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2021-07-15T04:39:55Z) - The Hidden Uncertainty in a Neural Networks Activations [105.4223982696279]
The distribution of a neural network's latent representations has been successfully used to detect out-of-distribution (OOD) data.
This work investigates whether this distribution correlates with a model's epistemic uncertainty, thus indicating its ability to generalise to novel inputs.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2020-12-05T17:30:35Z)
This list is automatically generated from the titles and abstracts of the papers in this site.
This site does not guarantee the quality of this site (including all information) and is not responsible for any consequences.