Spatio-temporal Multivariate Time Series Forecast with Chosen Variables

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2510.24027v1
• Date: Tue, 28 Oct 2025 03:19:06 GMT
• Title: Spatio-temporal Multivariate Time Series Forecast with Chosen Variables
• Authors: Zibo Liu, Zhe Jiang, Zelin Xu, Tingsong Xiao, Yupu Zhang, Zhengkun Xiao, Haibo Wang, Shigang Chen,
• Abstract summary: We propose a unified framework that jointly performs variable selection and model optimization for both forecast accuracy and model efficiency.<n>Experiments on five real-world datasets show that our work significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines in both accuracy and efficiency.
• Score: 12.674708324393995
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: Spatio-Temporal Multivariate time series Forecast (STMF) uses the time series of $n$ spatially distributed variables in a period of recent past to forecast their values in a period of near future. It has important applications in spatio-temporal sensing forecast such as road traffic prediction and air pollution prediction. Recent papers have addressed a practical problem of missing variables in the model input, which arises in the sensing applications where the number $m$ of sensors is far less than the number $n$ of locations to be monitored, due to budget constraints. We observe that the state of the art assumes that the $m$ variables (i.e., locations with sensors) in the model input are pre-determined and the important problem of how to choose the $m$ variables in the input has never been studied. This paper fills the gap by studying a new problem of STMF with chosen variables, which optimally selects $m$-out-of-$n$ variables for the model input in order to maximize the forecast accuracy. We propose a unified framework that jointly performs variable selection and model optimization for both forecast accuracy and model efficiency. It consists of three novel technical components: (1) masked variable-parameter pruning, which progressively prunes less informative variables and attention parameters through quantile-based masking; (2) prioritized variable-parameter replay, which replays low-loss past samples to preserve learned knowledge for model stability; (3) dynamic extrapolation mechanism, which propagates information from variables selected for the input to all other variables via learnable spatial embeddings and adjacency information. Experiments on five real-world datasets show that our work significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines in both accuracy and efficiency, demonstrating the effectiveness of joint variable selection and model optimization.

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